Grimsby’s strong away form shows them to be a good value pick on the positive handicap against a struggling Swindon side. Swindon have endured a dismal campaign, sitting 22nd in the table with just three wins from 20 games (7 draws, 10 losses). Their home record offers little encouragement, with only two wins from nine games, both against teams ranked below 15th. Swindon have failed to win against top-half teams at home, registering three losses and a draw, and have even lost to both bottom-two sides at home. Grimsby, in contrast, have been a force away from home, boasting the second-best away record in the league. They’ve secured six wins, one draw, and three losses on the road, with an impressive run of six wins and a draw in their last seven away games. Defensively solid, they’ve kept clean sheets in four of those seven outings. Part of the reason Swindon may have favourite status is due to their dominance in the head to head, with five wins in the last 6 games vs Grimsby, however Grimsby claimed victory in the most recent meeting in April and are a side on the rise, while Swindon have struggled in recent times and aren't the same level of side that came top of League Two just a few seasons ago. Grimsby fans will be especially motivated to see their side succeed against their former manager, who had an underwhelming stint with the Mariners. The odds may be as they are due to Grimsby’s disappointing home loss to Crewe last weekend, but Grimsby have consistently been stronger on the road this season and they've shown an ability to bounce back after disappointing home losses over the course of this season. In their last five instances of losing at home and immediately playing an away game, Grimsby have won all five of those away matches. This resilience underscores their capacity to recover and perform at a high level on the road. Even with midfielder Justin Obikwu potentially unavailable, Grimsby’s depth and ability to adapt should mitigate any impact.

While Swindon may have won their last home game, their form over the course of the season combined with Grimsby’s exceptional away performances make Grimsby +0.25 seem too high a price at 1.85, and we are looking to take advantage of this value.