Slovenian side host TNS in the final league phase match of the UEFA Conference League on Thursday. Welsh side TNS picked up an impressive win over Astana back in October that leaves them with three points in the Conference table, but their prospects of sneaking through to the playoff rounds are extremely thin. Celje are one of the sides above them that they can leapfrog, but the Slovenes will be expecting to progress with a win over the Welsh champions. Celje had the weekend off to prepare for this tie, while TNS rotated their entire outfield side in a Welsh cup match.

Despite a punishing draw, Celje have mustered up four points from a win over Basaksehir and a draw with Polish champions Bialystok. Celje have had to travel to strong sides Vitoria of Portugal and Real Betis of Spain and left with their head held high in narrow defeats. Last time out they had a disappointing 2-0 loss to Cypriot side Pafos, failing to recover from missing an early penalty. Celje will have targeted their home match against TNS as their most likely three points, and now find themselves in a position where they can grab one of the final playoff spots by winning by 2 or more goals.

Celje hosted Bialystok in November and created a huge 3.96 xG from 19 shots, but allowed the Poles to score three goals at the other end and draw the match. They demolished Turkish side Basaksehir 5-1 in their other home match, registering 3.04 xG from just 28% possession. They are also registering an average of 2 goals and 2.1 xG per home game on league duty, demonstrating their attacking prowess in their home ties.

TNS have tasted defeat in all three of their last away matches, losing to Welsh sides Bala Town, Briton Ferry and Irish side Shamrock Rovers. A rotated Fiorentina side registered 4.02 xG in Italy on TNS's other Conference League away day. Our analysis suggests there is good value in backing Celje to seal qualification with a heavy victory on Thursday night.