The Miami Heat embark on the second game of their road trip, seeking to halt a disconcerting seven-game losing streak. Their quest for redemption brings them to Madison Square Garden, where they will face a New York Knicks squad equally eager to rebound following a narrow 97-94 defeat to the Golden State Warriors. Both teams approach this encounter after a day's rest and requisite travel; notably, the Heat's journey from Memphis was considerably shorter than the Knicks' cross-country return from San Francisco. It's worth mentioning that the Knicks have struggled against the spread this season when favored at home by 5 to 10 points, holding a 4-9-1 record in such scenarios.​

The Knicks are contending with the absence of their All-Star point guard, Jalen Brunson, sidelined since March 6 due to a right ankle sprain. This injury is anticipated to keep him out until late March or early April. In Brunson's stead, the offensive burden has shifted to players like Karl-Anthony Towns, who delivered a commendable performance against the Warriors with 29 points and 12 rebounds. Since Brunson's injury, the Knicks have managed a 2-2 record, reflecting the challenges of adjusting to his absence. ​

The Heat possess additional motivation, recalling a recent matchup where they squandered a 19-point third-quarter lead, ultimately succumbing to the Knicks in overtime, propelled by Brunson's 31-point effort. In that contest, Miami demonstrated a favorable matchup for the majority of three quarters, only faltering during a late-game collapse. Given Brunson's current unavailability, the Heat aim to capitalize on this opportunity to rectify past shortcomings.​

Andrew Wiggins, who missed the previous encounter, is currently listed as questionable due to a lower left leg contusion. In the event of his continued absence, Miami's lineup remains largely consistent with the prior meeting. Conversely, the Knicks face the more significant void left by Brunson's injury. 

Analyzing the statistics from their recent head-to-head, a notable disparity lies in three-point shooting volume: the Knicks attempted 44 shots from beyond the arc compared to the Heat's 35. Other metrics, such as paint scoring (58-56), turnovers (13 each), and free throw attempts (16-15 in Miami's favor), indicate a closely contested matchup. This suggests that both teams are evenly matched, and a similar style of play can be anticipated in the upcoming game.​

Since Brunson's departure, the Knicks' offensive dynamics have shifted, particularly in their approach to paint scoring. While they rank fifth in paint points per game over the season, this figure has declined to 17th in his absence, averaging six fewer points in the paint per game—a significant decrease. Moreover, their offensive rating has suffered, plummeting to 26th without Brunson over the last four games, despite a notable 133-point outing against the Kings. Aggregated market ratings currently position the Knicks as the 16th-best offense; however, given the current roster composition, this assessment may be overly generous.​

The Heat's recent struggles, epitomized by their seven-game losing streak, are largely attributed to subpar three-point shooting. During this span, they rank 23rd in three-point percentage, converting only 34.1% of their attempts. However, the upcoming matchup presents an opportunity for positive regression, as the Knicks' defense allows opponents a 37.3% success rate from beyond the arc, the third-worst in the league. Given the Knicks' propensity for zone defense, the Heat should find ample opportunities to attempt open three-point shots.​

Additionally, the Heat excel in limiting opponents' free throw attempts, ranking third in opponent free throw attempt rate. Without Brunson, the Knicks have struggled to generate free throws, ranking 23rd in this metric with a 0.217 rate. If Miami can leverage this advantage, it could significantly aid their efforts to cover the spread. In their previous encounter, Bam Adebayo attempted eight free throws, leading the team with 30 points. The Heat's frontcourt, anchored by Adebayo and Kel'el Ware, matches up well against Towns and OG Anunoby, providing sufficient size and defensive prowess to mitigate their impact.​

Both teams operate at a deliberate pace, ranking among the bottom six in the league, which suggests a reduced number of offensive possessions in this game. Furthermore, the Knicks have experienced increased turnovers without their primary ball handler, ranking 20th in turnover percentage in games without Brunson. This could result in additional possessions for the Heat. Given the substantial spread, these factors are advantageous for Miami, as fewer possessions make it more challenging for the Knicks to establish a commanding lead.​

Our projections position Miami as 6.5-point underdogs, indicating value in taking the Heat to rebound from their recent slump.