This is a strong buy-low spot on Bryce Mitchell in a matchup where his grappling, pace, and cardio should give Said Nurmagomedov serious problems. While Said carries the Nurmagomedov name, his style is the opposite of the usual Dagestani blueprint — he’s not a strong wrestler, doesn’t have much control from top position, and consistently struggles when put on his back.

We’ve seen him get outgrappled and fade under pressure before — most recently in his loss to Vinicius de Oliveira (Lokdog), where he was taken down multiple times, held down, and looked completely out of ideas without an early front choke. He has a habit of settling for low-percentage subs instead of scrambling or working back to his feet, and when he’s pressed in the clinch or forced into extended grappling exchanges, he doesn’t show urgency.

Mitchell is built to expose these flaws. His wrestling is tenacious, he chains attempts well, and he thrives in chaotic fights. He’s not a pretty striker, but he’s busy and knows how to blend his shots into scrambles and clinch exchanges. That work rate will stand out to judges. He's also got the cardio to push for all three rounds — something that Nurmagomedov lacks — and the ability to take over as opponents fade.

On the feet, Nurmagomedov is flashy but low volume — he throws spinning kicks and explosive single strikes, but doesn’t commit to combinations or sustained pressure. That kind of style has never troubled Mitchell, who has faced and handled much more dangerous strikers like Barboza and Ige. The difference here is that Mitchell can take the fight to the mat and keep it there, especially as Said tires.

There’s always some risk with Said’s early front chokes and a possible judging bias in Abu Dhabi, but the wrestling, cardio, and control upside for Mitchell are simply too big to ignore. If he avoids a quick submission scare, he’s live to win rounds with top time, ground strikes, and sheer output.

Best odds available at Ladbrokes.