Stay up to date
The latest news, articles, and resources, sent to your inbox weekly.25 Mar 2025
3
-3
Morton host Raith at Cappielow on Tuesday evening in a rearranged Scottish Championship tie. Just two points separate the sides in 5th and 6th in the league table, but Morton head into Tuesday's match in much better form. Raith will be looking to arrest their worrying away form, while both teams know a win takes them within a few points of the promotion playoff spots.
Morton have been solid in recent weeks despite losing their best player Wilson to injury and going without their two first choice strikers in Stuparevic and Adeloye. Thankfully for manager Dougie Imrie, Adeloye looks set to return after coming off the bench against Queen's Park at the weekend, and defender Corr and forward Reynolds both look set to feature again. Saturday's win over Queen's Park was Morton's third straight victory as Imrie's men continue to find ways to edge their matches. Morton dictated much of the game, going 2-0 up before conceding a soft goal from a GK error. Over their last 8 matches, they have scored 1.63 goals per game from just 1.19 xG on average. They have conceded 1.38 goals from 1.39 xG. Despite not often getting the better of the chance creation with players missing from the squad, Morton have lost just 3 of their last 15 matches.
Raith's away performances have been particularly poor this season. Their strategy of late has been to attempt to kill games dead by allowing the ball to remain out of play for long periods during set pieces and breaking up the play. While they managed two 0-0 draws at Partick Thistle and Livingston using these tactics, they were hit with a late winning goal at bottom side Airdrie to make it four league away days without a win, and three without scoring. They have taken just 2 wins from their 14 away days this season. Looking back at their last 8 both home and away, they have both scored and conceded 1 goal per game. They have produced 1.26 xG on average and conceded just 1.08 xG on average across these games, but they have only managed to turn this into 3 wins over their last 8.
With Raith being one of the sides who play on a plastic pitch in the Scottish Championship, it is to be expected that they struggle with playing on grass. However, in their 8 away days at Partick Thistle, Dunfermline, Ayr, Morton and Queen's Park, they have seen a huge drop off in performance. Across this sample, they have scored just 0.5 goals per game from 0.99 xG, conceding 1.75 goals from 1.65 xG conceded. They have taken just 5 points from a possible 24 in these matches and many of their better performances have come either at home or away on the plastic.
Raith's young forward Finlay Pollock has flown out to Spain to join up with the Scotland U21 national squad, and he has scored 6 and assisted 1 of Raith's 30 league goals this campaign. With Morton seeing three players returning from injury ahead of this one, the team news favours Morton as Raith will miss Pollock's pace up top. Given Raith's pitiful away form on grass pitches this season and Morton's knack of getting results over the line of late, our analysis suggests there is good value in backing the DNB line in Greenock on Tuesday.
Best odds can be found at Bet365.
L