The Bucks take on the Thunder in a thrilling NBA Cup Final that sees the winning team take home $500,000 per player. Within current market ratings, the Thunder are rated as the best team in the league while the Bucks, a lowly 13th. We believe there is good value in taking the points with this experienced Bucks team against a youthful Thunder squad. There is also a high chance that the market is underpricing the Bucks and their true level due to a slow start to the season. That early-season sample is still being priced in residually into their ratings, but they have been on a heater over the past 15 games with a 12-3 record as the team has gotten healthier and found some momentum.

From a matchup perspective, sure the Thunder are ranked as the no.1 defense in the league, but what goes unnoticed is that they have faced the 8th easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Bucks are 2nd in mid-range shooting frequency and OKC are allowing the 8th highest field-goal percentage from the mid-range, a good stylistic advantage for Milwaukee. On the other side, the Bucks are 5th best at defending the paint (non-restricted area) and that is where OKC thrives, another strength on weakness matchup. Lastly, 2nd chance points will be crucial in what promises to be a tight game, and while both teams struggle to generate offensive rebounds, what stands out is the Bucks' defensive capability in this department - the Bucks are 4th best in the league when it comes to preventing 2nd chance points, while the Thunder are dead last.

Our numbers make this game closer to a 3-point differential between the two sides on a neutral field, hence providing value on the Bucks spread down to +4.