Recoleta come into this game with a 2-day rest advantage, having played at home on Monday, where they were just minutes away from handing league leaders Libertad their first defeat of the season, leading for around 80 minutes before conceding late in the 88th to draw 1-1. Meanwhile, Nacional Asuncion played two days later, taking a tough 1-3 home loss to Cerro Porteno.

Recoleta are in great form, now unbeaten in their last five games. After a slow start to the season—adjusting to life post-promotion and missing several key players—they've settled impressively, losing just 3 of their last 11 matches. Those three losses came against strong sides in Cerro Porteno and Libertad back in February, and a narrow, undeserved late 0-1 loss to Sportivo Luqueno where they created the better chances and were unfortunate not to come away with at least a draw.

Their away performances have been particularly strong: 3 wins, 3 draws, and just 2 losses—those two defeats again coming against Cerro and Libertad. Impressively, they’ve scored in all seven of their away games, netting two or more goals in five of those outings, making them the top-scoring side on the road with 16 goals from seven away matches. Their away form has only improved recently, with 3 wins and a draw from their last four on the road.

Recoleta are the second top scorers in the league with 23 goals in 14 matches. Although their defence was initially a weakness, conceding the most in the league (20 goals), this has tightened up considerably with the return of key defenders—conceding no more than one goal in any of their last six games. Their combination of free-scoring attack and improving defensive solidity makes them a particularly tough stylistic matchup for Nacional Asuncion.

Nacional Asuncion, in contrast, have serious issues in attack. They are the joint second-lowest scorers in the league, with just 10 goals from 14 matches. They’ve failed to score more than one goal in any game this season, averaging just 0.71 goals per game—a massive 0.93 goals per game fewer than Recoleta, and an even larger 2.19 goals per game difference when compared to Recoleta’s away scoring average (2.29).

All four of Nacional's wins this season have been tight 1-0 victories: over Olimpia during a poor run and Copa distractions for Olimpia, over a ten-man Atletico Tembetary, and over mid to low end sides in 2 de Mayo and General Caballero. The chances of them keeping a free-scoring Recoleta side scoreless seem slim.

Market respect for Recoleta continues to lag behind their performances, likely due to their newly promoted status, but the performances have been consistent over a sustained period. They should cause major problems for a misfiring Nacional Asuncion side.

Team news-wise, Recoleta may be missing centre-back Juan Nunez, but the pairing of Dominguez and Marcos Pereira performed very well against Libertad, so his absence shouldn't be overly disruptive. Nacional Asuncion are mostly at full strength but are missing key defensive midfielders Fabrizio Jara and Roberto Ramirez. Jara’s absence is particularly notable—he started all four of Nacional’s wins this season and made 20 league starts last season.

Finally, Recoleta also take confidence from their earlier 1-0 win over Nacional Asuncion this season. While it came during a period of rotation for Nacional due to Copa commitments, it nonetheless underlined Recoleta’s ability to match up well against them.

Overall, this looks a clear value spot to side with the in-form and free-scoring Recoleta side, with the +0.5 handicap seeming very generous given these sides' respective form and the stylistic match up of these two sides.