This is a perfect KO setup for Steven Nguyen. He holds a massive speed advantage on the feet and his polished boxing background is tailor-made to exploit the defensive holes in Mohammad Yahya’s game. Nguyen fights behind a long jab and straight right, applies clean volume, and doesn’t need to wrestle to dominate this matchup.

Yahya, meanwhile, is dropping to 145 for the first time — a move that’s likely to hurt more than help given his already questionable durability. He’s painfully slow, hesitant in exchanges, and shows no urgency or defensive awareness. His low output and reactive style are a terrible fit against someone with Nguyen’s pace and precision.

There’s always the small chance of a front choke if Yahya shoots a desperate takedown, but he rarely wrestles, and that’s not a sequence to rely on. The KO line offers much better value than the overpriced submission prop, and Nguyen should have no issue finding the finish on the feet. He’s levels above Yahya here, and a knockout feels inevitable.

Best odds available at BetMGM or Unibet.