NBA
Denver Nuggets
06 Mar 2025
116
-110
Sacramento Kings
Team
Den
Sac
Denver Nuggets-5.5
1u@1.87
W
+0.87
Stay up to date
The latest news, articles, and resources, sent to your inbox weekly.06 Mar 2025
Team
Den
Sac
The Sacramento Kings are set to face the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena in Denver tonight. The Kings are on a four-game road winning streak, with victories over the Hornets, Jazz, Rockets, and Mavericks. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are coming off a 110-103 loss to the Celtics on Sunday.
Denver's home court presents a unique challenge due to its altitude of 5,280 feet, the highest in the NBA, which often affects visiting teams, especially those on extended road trips like the Kings. The Nuggets boast the league's second-best home offense, averaging 122.8 points per game and maintaining a +7.1 point differential. In contrast, the Kings allow 115.8 points per game on the road, ranking 19th in defensive metrics.
The Kings will be without key player Domantas Sabonis, sidelined with a hamstring injury. Sabonis has been instrumental this season, averaging 19.5 points and leading the league with 14.1 rebounds per game. His absence could significantly impact Sacramento's interior defense and rebounding capabilities. Denver's Nikola Jokic, averaging a triple-double with 28.9 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.4 assists per game, may exploit this matchup.
The Nuggets excel in paint scoring, leading the league with 56.2 points per game in the paint. With the Kings' defense slipping to 17th in paint protection over the past ten games, Jokic's playmaking could be pivotal. Denver's offense is sustainable, relying less on perimeter shooting and more on efficient interior play.
Sacramento's fast-paced style might be hindered by Denver's altitude, potentially affecting their shooting efficiency. Additionally, the Kings rank in the bottom ten for opponent free throw attempts and makes, while the Nuggets are ninth in both offensive categories. In their last meeting, Denver had a 31-19 free throw advantage, a trend that could continue.
Rebounding is another area where Denver holds an edge. They rank third in defensive rebounds per game and seventh in offensive rebounding percentage. Without Sabonis, the Kings may struggle to compete on the boards.
Currently, the Nuggets are favored by 5.5 points. Our projections make this game -7 in favour of the Nuggets providing us with small value to back to the home side, a spot that we view the market to have overadjusted on the Kings in following their recent win streak.
M