Christopher O’Connell, ranked in the high 70s, battles against lucky loser Chun-Hsin Tseng, who enters on qualifying losses and a poor recent record. O’Connell has been struggling too—losing four straight matches approaching Toronto—but his experience at ATP 1000 level and head-to-head advantage (2–1 in their matchups, including a hard-court 6-0 retirement win three years ago) give him an edge.

Advanced models and simulations project O’Connell as the favorite with roughly 56% win probability. Despite form concerns, O’Connell’s hold serve efficiency of around 83% on hard and break-point conversion nearing 33% edge on second serve points gives him just enough stability over Tseng, who is still rhythm building after qualifying.

In their previous meetings, O’Connell showed better fitness and mental awareness, pushing Tseng to errors late in sets. Tseng has limited ATP main-draw experience and is vulnerable under pressure. The matchup, given their respective serve-consistent levels, points toward O’Connell-controlled sets and control leveraging small return splits. Trends reinforce this pick: neither is in terrible form, but O’Connell's experience and break-point competence are enough to tilt the outcome.