This is one of the most anticipated matchups on the card, and it looks like a strong buy-low spot on Musayev. Both fighters are legitimate talents, but stylistically, the edge leans toward the more experienced and technically refined striker in Musayev.

Tofiq is an explosive and polished striker with legitimate knockout power, elite hand speed, and sharp counters. His movement is efficient, and he carries his power late into fights — even if he can fade slightly in round three, he doesn’t collapse. His takedown defence has looked reliable, and he’s physically strong enough to stay upright or create scrambles. While Orolbai brings solid pressure and does have power, his striking is notably raw in comparison and he relies on walking opponents down with little head movement. That’s a dangerous approach against someone like Musayev, who excels at punishing linear entries with fast, accurate shots.

There’s also some uncertainty around Orolbai’s durability. He absorbed considerable damage in his last bout against Mateusz Rębecki, including a suspected orbital fracture. That sort of injury often leaves long-term impact, especially when facing someone as explosive and clinical as Musayev. If Orolbai can push a relentless pace and drag Musayev into deep waters, he’s live — but that likely only becomes a factor in round three. Before then, Musayev has the tools to win minutes and land significant shots, and he’s absolutely live for a KO.

This is a competitive fight, but Musayev looks like the more skilled operator and is being undervalued at underdog odds. He has the striking advantage, solid defensive wrestling, and finishing upside — all of which make him the side to back here.