Granada face significant squad issues heading into this match. They will be without their first-choice goalkeeper Luca Zidane and starting centre-back Loic Williams due to injury, as well as Insua, who is a less significant absence due to his regular injuries. Additionally, their midfield anchor Martin Hongla is away on international duty with Cameroon, and key right midfielder Tsitaishvili is away with Georgia. Tsitaishvili's absence is particularly concerning for Granada, as he has scored two goals and assisted one in his last four games, directly contributing to 3 of Granada’s last 4 goals.

In contrast, Oviedo are in a much better position with their squad. They have no players away on international duty and they have been boosted by the return of Santi Cazorla and forward Vinas from injury. Additionally, they have strengthened their lineup with the signing of Nacho Vidal from Osasuna in January, who is set to receive the league’s February player of the month award. Since his arrival, Oviedo have only lost two of their last ten games.

The last meeting between these sides was back in December, where Oviedo secured a 2-0 win with Granada managing just one shot on target. Since then, Granada have played 12 league games, winning only 4. Three of those wins came against sides currently in the relegation zone, while the other was against 13th-placed Gijon. Granada have consistently struggled against stronger opponents and their form has notably dipped in recent weeks. This includes a 5-0 loss to Cordoba and a loss to promotion playoff rivals Cadiz last game, where they registered just one shot on target.

Granada’s home form is being somewhat overestimated here. While they are unbeaten in their last 9 home games, they have only managed to win 7 out of 16. Out of those 7 wins, 4 were against the bottom 4 sides, another was against mid-table Cordoba which required an early red card and a 91st-minute penalty to secure the victory, and their only impressive win was against Santander — heavily influenced by two goals from Uzuni, who has since left for the MLS. Without Uzuni, Granada’s attack has weakened significantly, having won only 3 of their last 10 games and failing to score in 4 of those matches. Of Granada's 7 home wins, 4 of 7 have been wins in which Uzuni scored 2 goals or more.

Although a sufficient rest period has passed, at this stage of this season with fatigue high in general around the league, it could still be argued Oviedo somewhat have a rest advantage given they played two days earlier than Granada, who played away from home on Sunday. In terms of their recent form, although Oviedo are winless in their last three games, it's important to note the context. They were unlucky to concede a 91st-minute goal against Deportivo, narrowly lost 1-0 to 3rd place Mirandes via a penalty, and drew 1-1 against 4th place Elche, where they racked up 3.06 xG. It feels as if these three tougher tests leaves Oviedo well prepped going into this promotion showdown, whereas Granada have papered the cracks recently with some wins over weaker sides, although it is clear they haven't been able to compete at the same level without Uzuni, and without Tsitaishvili here their attack is likely to weaken further.

With Granada struggling to adjust to life without Uzuni and severely weakened by injuries and international duty, while Oviedo are strengthened by important returners and seem well prepped coming into a crucial game for their season, siding with Oviedo looks to present some value. The best odds can be found on the Draw No Bet line on BetMGM or Unibet, which currently beats the majority of books by around 28 ticks.