The Thunder arrive in Indiana for Game 3 of the NBA Finals on June 11 looking to seize control of the series after evening it up with a decisive 123‑107 win in Game 2. With the spread opening at Thunder –5.5, the expectation is clear: OKC's statistical dominance and tactical clarity position them well to cover again tonight. Indiana's home court and Tyrese Haliburton’s grit matter, but the weight of advanced metrics and matchup dynamics tilt heavily toward the visitors.

The series has showcased thunderous highs and narrow escapes. Game 1 saw the Pacers eke out a 111‑110 win on Haliburton’s late-game brilliance, but turnovers were a major Achilles’ heel—Indiana coughed it up 25 times. Game 2 was a completely different story; Oklahoma City shot nearly 49 percent from the field, forced 22 more Pacers turnovers, and held Indiana to just 107 points. That 16‑point blowout featured a commanding second-quarter advantage and again reinforced OKC’s superior execution on both ends.

Advanced metrics paint a lopsided picture. Through the playoffs, the Thunder carry the NBA’s best defensive rating (107.4) and top league-wide turnover margin, while Indiana’s defensive rating sits closer to middle-of-the-pack. Oklahoma City’s offensive efficiency—evident in their 48.8 percent shooting and near-39 percent success from three in Game 2—is matched by their discipline, as their attack remained methodical rather than explosive .

Statistically, OKC’s grip tightens when stacking up critical categories. They’ve outscored Indiana by over 24 points across the first two games, and their road record in these playoffs has seen them cover the spread in five of six away contests. The Thunder’s interior length and rim protection, anchored by Chet Holmgren, has consistently disrupted Indiana’s half-court sets. Meanwhile, the Pacers have struggled to generate consistent offensive flow outside of Haliburton’s heroics—a stark contrast to OKC’s balanced scoring attack that featured five double-digit scorers in Game 2.

Trends issue a strong vote of confidence for the Thunder: they’re 0‑3 in Game 3s this postseason, but that record belongs to Indiana; OKC leads 1‑0 for Game 3 in Finals situations, and their road form has been historically reliable. The Pacers, though resilient, have rarely matched OKC’s physicality and execution when hampered by turnovers and slowed by defensive pressure. All signs—statistical, tactical, and trend-driven—point to the Thunder as the better bet to cover the spread in Game 3 tonight.

Best odds available at Bet365.