The Philadelphia Eagles are set to host the LA Rams in the NFC Divisional Round. Several factors suggest that the total is well-positioned to go over the main market line. To begin with, it is important to note that the first meeting between these two teams in Los Angeles during the regular season saw a total of 57 points. Both offenses had success against these defenses, showcasing the potential for explosive scoring plays.

Moreover, the conditions are expected to be snowy. This has lead to the market heavily moving the total down. However, we see this from a different angle, primarily because there is evidence which suggests that snow slows down pass rushers' get-off times significantly, as seen in a similar snow game between the 49ers and Bills earlier this year, leading to decreased pressure on quarterbacks. This is particularly important for both defenses, which rely on their ability to pressure the passer. With more time to throw, elite quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Matthew Stafford can exploit defenses downfield. Furthermore, defenders on snowy surfaces struggle to react to sudden changes in direction, creating opportunities for big plays in the running and passing games. Running-back Saquon Barkley, in particular, thrives in situations where tacklers are disadvantaged.

For the Eagles, quarterback Jalen Hurts is protected by arguably the league’s best offensive line and has the mobility to extend plays and rack up yards both through the air and on the ground. A big change of matchup for the Rams compared to their fist round fixture against quarterback Sam Darnold. Philadelphia also boasts an elite group of pass-catchers, including A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. In a negative game script, they can move the ball efficiently - yet their perception in the market has gone down given their recent low-scoring affair and heavy run game plan against the Packers. This is a great buy low on the Eagles offense as they face a Rams defense, ranked bottom 8 in dropback EPA and success rate.

On the Rams side, Head coach Sean McVay has been known to unleash his most creative play designs in high-stakes games, and this matchup should be no exception. With two of the league’s top receivers in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and a seasoned playoff quarterback in Matthew Stafford, the Rams have the personnel to keep pace with Philadelphia. This coupled with snowy conditions that often feature big offensive plays due to defenders’ inability to adjust quickly - will lead to an increase in potential for the Rams to put up points.