We're picking Phillips ITD for 0.5 units here, best odds available at BetMGM.

See below for original writeup on Phillips ML.

This looks like a clear buy-low spot on Kyler Phillips, who’s being undervalued due to recent results and recency bias. Just months ago, Phillips closed as a 1.20 favourite against Rob Font and has consistently been lined in the 1.33 to 1.50 range vs ranked-level opponents. Now, he finds himself as a 2.50 underdog to Vinicius de Oliveira — a fighter who was an underdog in all three of his UFC appearances and is now priced as a 1.56 favourite for the first time… against the best opponent he’s faced.

Stylistically, this is a favourable matchup for Kyler. Oliveira has clear power and finishing ability, but his defensive flaws are apparent, particularly in the grappling. In his UFC debut, he was taken down and outgrappled by Sopaj (on short notice), repeatedly giving up his back — a dangerous habit against someone like Phillips, who’s a BJJ black belt with excellent back-taking ability. Phillips also has far better wrestling than Ricky Simon (who looked off in that fight) and can absolutely find takedowns here.

Cardio has been used as a narrative in Oliveira’s favour, but it’s overstated — Kyler isn't a R1-only fighter and Oliveira himself has slowed down in multiple fights. What’s more telling is that Phillips has looked best in the big cage, where his movement and footwork shine, and has actually won every one of his UFC fights outside the Apex.

Skill-for-skill, Kyler has the better striking technique, better grappling, more experience at the UFC level, and more paths to victory. He can win by KO, sub, or decision — and he's more durable than Oliveira, who’s been knocked out three times on the regional scene. Add in the MMA Lab camp advantage and it’s clear he’s in a strong spot.

This fight may be competitive at times, but Phillips looks good to win round 1 and has the tools to carry that success throughout. At 2.50, there’s solid value on the more proven and well-rounded fighter. A fairer price would be in the 1.91 to 1.83 range.

Best odds available at Virginbet.