This matchup feels like a clear value spot for Daniel Rodriguez, particularly in the KO/TKO market. While both fighters are veterans at this stage of their careers, Rodriguez still brings a level of output and durability that Ponzinibbio may struggle to match over three rounds.

Rodriguez consistently puts out extremely high volume — throwing over 250 strikes in multiple recent fights, even when facing pressure or being taken down. Against Ponzinibbio, who doesn’t present a significant grappling threat, Rodriguez should have full freedom to let his hands go. His pace, pressure, and shot selection will likely be difficult for Ponzinibbio to deal with, especially as the fight progresses.

Ponzinibbio, now 37, has shown visible signs of decline. He’s been hurt repeatedly in recent fights — not just by power punchers, but by jabs and shots from grapplers with limited striking tools. In his last bout, he was nearly finished by Carlston Harris and wobbled badly by Alex Morono - while Kevin Holland beat him by TKO back in April last year. His chin looks increasingly fragile, and his ability to recover under fire appears diminished.

Rodriguez has clean, accurate boxing and enough pop to finish an aging opponent who is starting to crack under sustained volume. If he throws at his usual pace, it’s only a matter of time before he lands something significant. Given the combination of Ponzinibbio’s fading durability, D-Rod’s relentless output, and the stylistic matchup that favours sustained damage, the KO/TKO prop holds good value. Best odds can be found at BetMGM.