11 Mar 2025
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Queen's Park host Partick Thistle in the Scottish Championship after having their Scottish Cup dreams dashed in a 4-1 thumping at Aberdeen on Saturday. Partick will make the short trip across Glasgow with very fresh legs, having not played since the 28th of February in a 1-1 draw against title contenders Livingston. Partick will be looking to get their season back on track after a couple of months of poor form that saw the dismissal of Kris Doolan.
Queen's have had much more joy away from home this season, sitting 4th in the away table. They are in second bottom place at home, scoring just 13 goals in their 12 home matches. As QP play their home games at the national stadium, there is often a cavernous atmosphere and an enormous pitch, which doesn't work well for a side like QP who don't play expansive football. They have fallen to defeat in 6 of their last 9 home matches, and Partick Thistle will be seeing this away day as an excellent chance to get their first win since early January.
Over their last 7 league matches, Queens have both scored and conceded at a rate of 1.29 per game. They have however been conceding 1.55 xG per game over this spell, creating an average of 1.23 Their goals stats are dragged up by a 4-0 win over a calamitous Raith side two weekends back, with QP averaging just 0.83 goals per game in the other 6 in this sample. Last midweek they faced a rotated Ayr side, who passed up a number of chances to take the lead before QP bagged two quick goals in the second half. Their defensive issues then reared their heads however, as Ayr threw a few more men forward and staged a 3-2 comeback win in the last 25 minutes of the match.
Partick Thistle's form has been poor in 2025. Initially touted as among the favourites for the promotion race, their form this calendar year has seen manager Doolan sacked and Partick Thistle now within four points of the pack chasing for the promotion playoff spot. Over their last 7 matches, they have just one win and three draws. They did however start well against table toppers Falkirk until an early red card for player manager Brian Graham. They also managed a draw against Livi last time out, and had an even game against second-placed Ayr in a tight 2-1 defeat. In their last 7, they have scored 1.29 goals per game from 1.09 xG. They have conceded 2.14 goals per game from 1.49 xG conceded on average. While these look ugly, 4 of these goals came after a first half red card and another 3 came in Doolan's last game as manager when the writing was on the wall. They are undefeated in their two matches since, against form sides Airdrie and Livi, and have a very impressive H2H advantage over their city neighbours in this tie.
We need to go back 13 matches between these sides to find a Queen's Park win in 90 minutes, as Thistle have enjoyed 9 wins and 3 draws since January 2023. While there has of course been squad turnover during this time, Partick Thistle couldn't have picked a more ideal opponent to look to get back to winning ways. Partick Thistle enjoy a considerable rest advantage here, with Queen's playing three times in the 12 days since Thistle last took to the pitch. Queen's had a bruising day at Pittodrie on Saturday, losing RB Devine and CB Ujdur to injury before the hour mark. Given how small Queen's squad is, there is likely to be very heavy legs after such a busy schedule.
Given the significant rest advantage Partick have, their strong H2H and Queen's dreadful home form, there looks to be good value in backing Partick Thistle on the DNB line at above even money.
Best odds can be found at Bet365.
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