Rangers host Fenerbahce in the second leg of their Europa League Round of 16 tie at Ibrox on Thursday. After a relentless counter-attacking performance in Istanbul, Rangers go into their home leg with a surprise 3-1 lead. Jose Mourinho commented that his side were lucky to be escaping with just a two goal deficit, after Cyriel Dessers was marginally offside for two further counters. Fenerbahce will now have to chase the game at Ibrox after a laboured first leg showing, and Rangers will be primed to hit their ageing squad on the counter once again.

Rangers scored an early goal in Istanbul after pressing a lethargic looking Fener backline. The Turkish side equalised from a corner shortly afterwards, before two lightning quick goals from Vaclav Cerny gave Rangers a two goal cushion. Butland made some big saves to stop Dzeko, Talisca and En-Nesyri. Both sides have had the weekend off to prepare for this tie, so should both have fresh legs as Fener look to find a way back into the tie amid a raucous Ibrox atmosphere.

Rangers 4 home games in the league phase were thrilling encounters. The Gers faced a strong Lyon side (1-4), a rotated FCSB team (4-0), English giants Spurs (1-1) and then had a winner-takes-all match against Union SG (2-1). These games have been very open and often end to end. Rangers have scored an average of 2 goals per game from 1.73 xG, conceding 1.5 goals per game from 1.47 xG. Both Lyon and Union SG adopted attacking, high-press approaches and managed 2.25 and 2.40 xG respectively. Rangers have been unable to prevent shots raining down on goal in Europe this season, and their defence has seen lots of inexperienced players featuring amid chopping and changing.

As Fenerbahce also had to navigate the play off round against Anderlecht, they have played 5 away games in the EL so far. These have been similarly open affairs, with two consecutive trips to the Netherlands against FC Twente (1-1) and Alkmaar (3-1), a win over Czech league leaders Slavia Prague (1-2), a draw in Denmark against Midtyjlland (2-2) and the same scoreline at Anderlecht (2-2) in the second leg, after taking a 3-0 lead into the match. Fenerbahce have similarly been unable to stop the chance creation of their opponents in these away days, conceding 1.8 goals per game from a huge average xG concession of 2.15. They have scored 1.6 goals per game from 1.35 xG. Their need to quickly turn this tie around will see them adopt an attacking setup at Rangers, who will be looking forward to the opportunity to counter into the space this affords, as they did so well in Istanbul last week.

Rangers have kept just one clean sheet over their last 6 matches, in a 4-0 win over Ross County. St Mirren, Kilmarnock and Motherwell all managed to score twice against this Rangers side, while Hearts managed 2.41 xG against the Gers but only one goal. Fener have kept 3 clean sheets over their last 6, but will be unable to adopt a rigid defensive structure as they chase a two goal deficit.

Looking at UEL 2nd leg trends since 2022, we can see that the added permutations typically lead to more chances being created. The average xG in the UEL jumps from 2.79 to 3.05 per match from first legs to second legs. Goals are consistently underpriced across these 73 second legs, with the Overs mainline landing in 61.6% of second legs compared to 51.2% of the 81 first legs in this sample.

Rangers lost CB Robin Propper to a head knock last week, and he is likely to sit this one out as he must follow the concussion protocol. Fenerbahce welcome back their anchor man in Fred, who will act as the base in midfield and allow them to push more men forward. Fener also lost an experienced CB last week as Soyuncu left the pitch with a thigh injury. The stage is set for the second leg, and Rangers will be hoping to counter Fenerbahce again to put the tie beyond the Turks' reach.

Best odds can be found at Bet365.