The Boston Red Sox (22–24) host the Atlanta Braves (23–22) tonight at Fenway Park for the second game of their interleague series. Boston aims to snap a four-game losing streak, having dropped the series opener 4–2 despite a strong start from Chris Sale. Atlanta, after a rough 0–7 start to the season, has rebounded impressively, winning nine of their last twelve games to reach above .500 for the first time this year.

Boston's offense has been a bright spot, leading the majors in hard-hit rate and ranking second in both exit velocity and barrel rate. They average 5.19 runs per game at home, showcasing their ability to capitalize on favorable hitting conditions at Fenway Park. Third baseman Alex Bregman has been particularly hot, slashing .333/.431/.676 over the last month and leading the team with a .309 batting average and .579 slugging percentage.

On the mound, Lucas Giolito (1–1, 5.51 ERA) is set to make his fourth start of the season. After missing the entire 2024 season due to elbow surgery, Giolito has shown signs of regaining his form, holding the Royals to two hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings in his most recent outing.

Giolito's resurgence aligns well against a Braves lineup that has struggled on the road, batting just .216 with a .648 OPS away from Truist Park. Atlanta's offense ranks 25th in wRC+ this month, with only two hitters above a 100 wRC+ and three regular starters below 25 in that metric.

Opposing Giolito is Grant Holmes (2–3, 4.14 ERA), who has been inconsistent this season. While his slider boasts a 35% whiff rate, control issues have led to a high 5.19 FIP. Holmes has struggled particularly on the road, posting a 6.38 ERA in four away starts this season.

Boston has covered the first five innings (F5) run line in 20 of its last 28 games, indicating strong starts even amidst recent losses. Additionally, the Red Sox have a positive run differential at home and have historically performed well in interleague play at Fenway Park. Given the Braves' road struggles and Holmes' inconsistency, the Red Sox are well-positioned to bounce back tonight.

In conclusion, the combination of Boston's potent offense, Giolito's improving form, and favorable home trends make the Red Sox a strong pick to secure a win against the Braves in tonight's matchup.

Best odds available at PaddyPower.