This looks like a well-priced spot to side with Novorizontino, with several key factors pointing in their favour — most notably team news, travel, and performance trends.

Remo have impressed in their first season back at this level, sitting 5th in the table and matching 4th-placed Cuiabá on points. However, their form has dipped after an unbeaten opening 10 matches. They’ve managed just two wins in their last nine, both secured in injury time — a 2-1 comeback away to fellow promoted side Athletic Club, and a 2-1 win over Operário, also thanks to late heroics. These narrow wins relied heavily on striker Pedro Rocha, who’s likely to miss out again here. He’s the league’s top scorer with 8 goals and 2 assists and is by far the most potent player in the division according to xG metrics (7.71 xG, which is 2.43 more than any other player, with 0.54 xG/90). His finishing quality has papered over Remo's modest attacking output, and his absence leaves a huge void.

Remo will also be without two key midfielders: Luan Martins and Giovanni Pavani are both suspended. Martins has started 9/16 matches (including 5 of the last 6 before missing through suspension) and scored the late equaliser against 10-man Chapecoense last match. Pavani has featured in 10/16 games and adds further steel in midfield. At the back, starting centre-back Reynaldo (14 starts) is also likely out through injury. Up top, Marrony is expected to fill in for Rocha again — but across seven seasons of football, he’s never scored more than five league goals and hasn’t completed a full 90 minutes since joining. Remo are notably weakened across the spine of their side.

Despite sitting top five, Remo are starting to show signs of regression after a hot start, particularly with their xG numbers. They’ve slightly outperformed their underlying data, especially thanks to Rocha’s elite finishing. The fact that their xG vs actual goals differential is the best in the league (even though still negative, like the rest of the division) points to potential overachievement.

Novorizontino, meanwhile, are one of the most balanced and consistent sides in the league. They finished level on points with 4th-placed Ceará last season, narrowly missing promotion after blowing their chance on the final day. They’ve rebounded well, sitting 3rd this year, just three points off top spot. They’re in good physical condition with no key injuries and benefit from a one-day rest advantage here. Novorizontino played at home on Saturday, while Remo faced a gruelling 3,500km away trip to Chapecoense on Sunday — one of the longest away days on their schedule.

This is a strong opportunity for Novorizontino to take advantage of a tired, depleted and slightly overperforming Remo side. With Novorizontino in a tight race for promotion and Remo missing so many key players, getting Novorizontino on the +0.25 line offers solid value.

Best odds available on bet365.