Arthur Rinderknech arrives with strong momentum, carrying confidence from recent grass-court performances and solid results leading into the Mallorca tournament. He has maintained a consistent serve, winning 78% of first-serve points, and has been particularly impressive in clutch moments, converting 80% of break points during their head-to-head encounters—against Džumhur, who only managed to convert 22% of his opportunities. In 2025, Rinderknech holds a 35% win rate overall, but more importantly, he has been markedly sharper on grass, converting 54% of his break-point chances on this surface versus Džumhur’s 44%.

Džumhur arrives as a dangerous competitor, yet his recent form shows inconsistency—winning only 35% of tour-level matches this season, compared to Rinderknech’s near 41% . He tends to struggle with conversion under pressure, reflected in his low second-serve win percentage and break-point conversion rate. Rinderknech, with his powerful serve and aggressive groundstrokes, is ideally suited to exploit those weaknesses.

Statistically, the head-to-head stands at 1–1, but the context heavily favors Rinderknech. Their last competitive meeting saw him attack deep on Džumhur’s weaker second serve and add pressure in tiebreaks. Rinderknech averages 10 aces to Džumhur’s 8 in their duels, and Džumhur has committed more double faults (6 versus 3), which often tipped the balance in straight-set decisions.

Grass courts enhance strengths for Rinderknech—his height and aggressive style impact fast surface play, whereas Džumhur’s baseline game and defensive orientation remains more effective on slower courts. Moreover, Rinderknech has won 61% of simulations predicting this matchup and continues to perform in polished fashion without conceding sets.

In summary, Rinderknech brings superior serve potency, higher break-point efficiency, grass-court adaptability, and recent match dominance that together form a compelling profile for a straight-set win. These trends strongly support taking Rinderknech to cover −1.5 sets today.