This is a stylistic matchup that clearly favours Gillian Robertson, particularly when it comes to control time and ground dominance. While Marina Rodriguez has decent takedown defence on paper, her real issue lies in what happens once she’s grounded. Time and again, she’s shown a tendency to accept bottom position and focus on survival rather than actively working to get back to her feet.

Against high-level grapplers like Virna Jandiroba, Rodriguez avoided being finished but consistently lost rounds by staying on her back. That same pattern is likely to play out here. Robertson excels in top control and doesn’t need to advance aggressively to dominate rounds — once she’s on top, she’s usually in full control of the pace and position.

At 38 years old, it's unlikely Rodriguez suddenly corrects this long-standing weakness. Robertson, by contrast, is younger, still improving, and coming off competitive performances winning her last 4 fights in a row, the last 3 all by decision. If she secures early takedowns, as expected, each round may effectively be sealed once it hits the mat. Mariana Rodriguez's last 3 losses have all come via decision, and we expect there's a strong possibility of that being the case again here.

While Robertson has won her last two fights via decision, there is still a likelihood she can find a finish here, however there is clear evidence based on the stylistic match up of this fight and their previous bouts to suggest there's solid value on Robertson via decision at 2.5. These odds are available at 888sport, however we still like this selection down to around 2.3, which can be found at WilliamHill or Betway.