This is a strong stylistic matchup for Piera Rodriguez, who brings consistent wrestling pressure and a well-rounded game. Rodriguez averages 4 takedowns per 15 minutes with a solid 51% accuracy and often attempts 10 or more across three rounds. That level of activity should serve her well here against Ketlen Souza, whose takedown defense has been questionable even on the regional scene. Souza also tends to make tactical grappling errors, such as chasing guillotines from poor positions, which can cost her valuable time and position.

In the clinch, Rodriguez should have a clear edge—she’s physically strong, aggressive, and effective with knees and elbows. On the feet, the striking is more competitive. Souza is likely to land the heavier shots in close range and will come forward, but Rodriguez’s durability, pace, and low kicks make her a live competitor in those exchanges. Importantly, Souza’s ability to pressure and kick freely could be diminished by the constant threat of Rodriguez’s level changes. If she holds back, she’ll lose on volume. If she doesn’t, she risks getting taken down repeatedly.

Rodriguez may not be a dominant top controller, but her ground and pound is effective and her timing on entries is very good. Three to four takedowns, control time, and competitiveness in the striking should be enough to win her rounds here. Rodriguez has faced and beaten the better level of opposition and stylistically checks more boxes in this matchup. She’s been consistent with her game plan across multiple fights, and if she sticks to it here, she should get her hand raised. I cap her at around 70%, with a clear path to victory through wrestling volume and clinch control.

Best odds available at BetVictor and WilliamHill.