​The Dallas Mavericks are set to host the Sacramento Kings, aiming to rebound from a 132-117 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. The Kings, conversely, are coming off a 113-103 victory over the Houston Rockets, a game in which they were four-point underdogs. This matchup carries significant weight for Western Conference standings, with the Mavericks currently occupying the 9th seed and the Kings close behind in 10th.​

In their previous two encounters this season, the Kings emerged victorious, leading the series 2-0. However, the upcoming game presents a notable shift: the absence of Domantas Sabonis. The center suffered a hamstring strain in the recent win against the Rockets and is expected to be sidelined for at least one week. Sabonis has been instrumental for Sacramento, averaging 19.5 points, 14.1 rebounds, and 6.2 assists over 56 games this season. His playmaking and rebounding prowess will be sorely missed, especially considering his averages of 16.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists in the two games against Dallas this season.​

The Mavericks are embarking on their third consecutive home game, having secured four straight home victories prior to the loss against Milwaukee. This season, they boast an 18-13 ATS record at home. In contrast, the Kings have struggled on the road, holding a 13-16-1 ATS record, and have been even less reliable as favorites, standing at 15-23-4 ATS. 

At home, Dallas exhibits a net rating of +5.0, placing them in the league's top nine, with a defensive rating ranked seventh. This contrasts with their road performance, where they rank 15th in net rating, underscoring their stronger play on their home court.​

From a matchup perspective, the Kings have been allowing opponents a high number of free throw attempts, ranking 21st in this metric. The Mavericks, conversely, excel at drawing fouls, ranking sixth in free throw attempts on offense. This disparity could play a pivotal role, especially considering Dallas's recent struggles against Milwaukee due to free throw differentials.​

Perimeter play is another critical factor. The Kings rank 28th in opponent three-pointers made and 21st in opponent three-pointers attempted, which bodes well for Dallas's sharpshooters like Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson and Max Christie. Defensively, the Mavericks have been effective, ranking sixth in opponent effective field goal percentage over the past ten games, while the Kings stand at 24th.​

Turnovers present another area of concern for Sacramento. Without Sabonis initiating offense, the Kings, who rank 28th in turnover percentage over the last ten games, may face increased pressure. Dallas, in contrast, has been more secure with the ball, ranking fourth in turnover percentage during the same span. Additionally, the Mavericks hold a sixth-place ranking in assist-to-turnover ratio, whereas the Kings are positioned at 27th.​

Considering these factors, it appears the market may have overadjusted following Dallas's recent loss and Sacramento's win. Our projections suggest this line should be closer to Mavericks +1, indicating value in backing the home underdogs.