There are a few reasonable concerns heading into this fight for Tainara Lisboa — namely, the 18-month layoff and her return from knee cartilage reconstruction. However, the fact that she took her time to fully recover and not rush back is encouraging, especially considering the matchup she’s returning to.

Santos, who has traditionally fought at 125 lbs, often looks less effective and undersized when competing up at 135 — where this fight will take place. Her judo-based grappling can struggle against physically stronger opponents, and while her top control is solid, her wrestling entries aren’t particularly reliable. She also tends to fade in Round 3, which could be crucial in a close fight.

Lisboa is a 2x Muay Thai world champion and a clearly superior striker here. Santos has shown concerning tendencies on the feet, and Lisboa’s counter-striking should land cleanly throughout. She has the potential to win big moments with power shots, and her overall striking technique should create separation in the judges’ eyes.

While there’s some risk if Lisboa initiates grappling and ends up on bottom — potentially losing minutes there — she has shown solid takedown defence, and the more dangerous finishing upside is on her side. At around 2.40, Lisboa presents underdog value in a fight where she holds the striking edge and should be able to dictate the terms of engagement if she keeps it standing.

Best odds available at bet365.