This looks like a strong spot to back Sarmiento on the +0.25 handicap, with several indicators pointing to value on the home side.

Sarmiento’s key issue in the Apertura phase was clearly their lack of goals, managing just 0.72 per game overall, rising slightly to 0.89 at home. However, they’ve addressed this decisively in the transfer window, bringing in an entirely new front four: Contrera and Rodriguez on the wings, and Ardaiz alongside Gonzalez up top. That investment paid immediate dividends, with Ardaiz scoring and assisting in their 2-2 draw against Independiente in the first round of the Clausura. They followed that with a hard-earned 0-0 away to Godoy Cruz — a strong defensive side conceding just 0.56 goals per game at home this season. While they failed to score, that result still stands as a decent showing given the opposition.

Defensively, Sarmiento remain solid, with no significant changes to the back line and a fully fit squad. Their defence has been underrated relative to their league position, and their consistency shows — in their last 11 league matches, they’ve lost only once, against Platense, where two starting defenders were missing.

At home, Sarmiento have been extremely resilient. Across their last 21 home league games, they’ve lost just 3 times, with only 1 loss in their last 11. They’ve also been extremely reliable in terms of Asian Handicap performance — covering the +0.25 line in 4 straight games, 9 of their last 10 overall, and 17 of their last 20 at home.

Lanús, meanwhile, come into this match without key starting centre-back Carlos Izquierdoz, who is suspended after starting 17 of their 18 league matches this season. His absence could be significant, especially with Sarmiento’s attack now looking far more dangerous than it did in the Apertura. On the road, Lanús have struggled to impose themselves — they’ve failed to cover the -0.25 line in 8 straight away games, 9 of their last 10, and 17 of their last 20. Against Sarmiento specifically, they’ve failed to cover the -0.25 line in 3 of their last 5 head-to-head meetings.

Sarmiento’s price to win here is currently 4.39 on Pinnacle, which feels inflated given context. In their 9 home games this season, they’ve only been priced higher against River Plate, Independiente, two sides that finished second and third in Group B of the Apertura phase. They’ve closed at lower odds at home to sides like Barracas Central, Platense, San Lorenzo and Ruestra — all of whom sit above Lanús in the Tabla Anual and have better away records this season.

While Lanús don’t have immediate Copa games, they do have both Copa Argentina and Copa Sudamericana knockout matches approaching in early August. Those could represent a slight mental distraction, whereas Sarmiento are fully focused on climbing the league table and distancing themselves from relegation danger in the promedios.

With a reinforced front line, a strong home record, and solid historical performance at this handicap line, Sarmiento look well-positioned to get a result here — and the +0.25 offers value in a match where the pricing doesn’t seem to reflect their resurgence.

Best odds available at Cloudbet.