Scotland welcome Greece to Hampden on Sunday in the second leg of their playoff round as the Scots look to retain their Group A status in the Nations League. Scotland hold a slender 1-0 lead going into the second leg after withstanding a Greek barrage in the second half. Craig Gordon faced 24 shots at goal in Piraeus on Thursday as Steve Clarke's side held on to their clean sheet to set them up to win the tie over two legs.

A controversial first half penalty saw Scotland emerge victorious on Thursday evening, as the referee blew for a foul despite both players arguably colliding with the same momentum. Despite facing significant pressure from Greece in the second half, with an impressive performance from 17-year old Genk CAM Karetsas off the bench, Scotland's defence remained resolute. Goalkeeper Gordon turned in a typically assured performance despite facing 24 shots, and CBs Souttar and Hanley were colossal as they prevented Greece from equalising.

Scotland spent the first 10 and a half months of 2024 with just a solitary win over Gibraltar over 11 matches. A dismal performance at Euro 2024 that saw them take just one point epitomised a glum year for the Scots, who went into the final three games of their Nations League group campaign needing close to maximum points. A spirited 0-0 draw with Portugal at Hampden kickstarted a Scottish resurgence, as they then went on to claim vital victories over Croatia and away at Poland to completely turn their year around.

Greece also started their 2024 with disappointment, missing out on Euro 2024 qualification 20 years on from their famous triumph of the tournament. They bounced back in a tough Group B draw, winning every match in their group except a visit from England a month after a fantastic 2-1 win at Wembley. Greece’s current crop of young talent like Tzolis and Koulierakis dovetailed excellently with the established Pavlidis and Bakasetas as Greece went on to take 15 points from a possible 18.

Looking back at Scotland's Nations League campaign, we can see that their defence has significantly overachieved against the xG they conceded. Being placed in a tough group with Portugal, Croatia and Poland, it is perhaps expected that Scotland would give away a high amount of chances. They have managed to concede just 1.14 goals per game this campaign from an average xG concession of a huge 1.89. They are yet to go a match this campaign with an xG concession lower than 1.25. Scotland have scored the same amount of goals per game (1.14) from an average xG of 0.96. They have been masterful on the counter attack under Steve Clarke, and given Greece's need to commit men forward, the Scots should be able to hit the Greek's on the counter.

Thursday's match was just the second time Greece have failed to score in this Nations League campaign, after England exacted revenge on them in a 3-0 win in the group stage. In all of their other 5 matches against England at Wembley, and against Ireland and Finland home and away, Greece have managed to score at least twice. They have averaged 1.57 goals per game from an xG of 1.39. They have conceded at a rate of 0.71 goals per game from 0.81 xG conceded. They have conceded in each of their games against England and on Thursday against Scotland, keeping clean sheets in all of their matches against worse opposition in Ireland and Finland.

Given Greece's need to chase the game, we anticipate they will set up in a similar fashion to the second half on Thursday while also looking to get more minutes out of star striker Vangelis Pavlidis. Greece managed 2.40 xG in the just the second half on Thursday, and given they have emerged victorious in each of their last 5 away days, they will set up at Hampden to continue this streak. Scotland welcome strong Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Christie back from suspension, who will add to their wealth of top-level options in midfield.

Both teams managed to score in 4 of Scotland's 6 group stage games, and with Scotland's defence significantly overachieving over the last year against their xG concession, Greece should be confident of creating chances at Hampden on Sunday.

Best odds can be found at betsson and NordicBet.