Both teams come into this game on a quick turnaround, having played on Friday, but the setups, form, and performances paint very different pictures. Shamrock Rovers were held to a 2-2 draw away to St. Pats in a tough Dublin derby, conceding a late 91st-minute equaliser. Despite the result, manager Stephen Bradley was pleased with the performance, pointing to their dominance throughout the match, supported by a notable xG differential of +0.73.

Bohemians, on the other hand, managed to scrape a 1-0 win over a heavily depleted and fatigued Cork City side, but the performance was far from convincing. Their lack of attacking cohesion remains a major concern—there’s little pace, no identifiable attacking structure, and decision-making in the final third is poor. Despite picking up three points, frustration remains high among fans, with calls for manager Alan Reynolds to be dismissed continuing.

The difference in sharpness and tempo between these sides was especially evident earlier in the week. Shamrock dismantled Cork 4-1, while Bohemians struggled to create any real threat against the same opponent. It’s also worth noting how poorly Bohs handled their last Friday-Monday turnaround earlier this season—losing both games, including a lifeless 0-1 defeat to Drogheda where they failed to register a single shot on target in the second half. Given this, Shamrock's higher energy and attacking tempo should cause them serious problems.

This fixture is arguably the biggest derby in Irish football, and Shamrock will be hungry for revenge after their 1-0 loss to Bohemians on the opening day. That result, however, was a major outlier—played at the Aviva in front of 33,000 fans, sandwiched between Shamrock’s Conference League Round of 16 ties. They were somewhat rotated, missing several starters through injury, and suffered more injuries during the game.

Shamrock have won their last six home games against Bohemians, five of those to nil, conceding just once—a 93rd-minute consolation in a 3-1 win. They’ve also won 9 of the last 10 head-to-heads overall, with the one draw being a red-card-affected result back in 2021. This dominance aligns with their current form—unbeaten at home this season (W3 D1), conceding just one goal (a late consolation vs Cork in their 4-1 win).

Meanwhile, Bohemians have lost four of their five away games, failing to score in three of those. Their only win came in a misleading 3-0 result against Waterford, inflated by two penalties and a series of missed Waterford chances.

From a team news perspective, Shamrock are in much better shape than they were in that gameweek one loss. Dylan Watts is a slight concern after colliding with the advertising boards on Friday, but Bradley has stated he should be fit. Bohemians still have issues in defence—CB Alex Lacey is out, and the left-back position remains a clear weakness with Kian Best still injured. Jordan Flores, who deputised on Friday, struggled a lot in the first half with Cork finding lots of success down the right flank, Flores was forced off with injury at half-time, which adds further uncertainty to an already weak area in the Bohs defence.

Given the form, fatigue factor, historical dominance at Tallaght (with a likely full house of around 9,000 fans), and Bohs' struggles both stylistically and personnel-wise, Shamrock -0.75 looks a strong value play here. We expect a focused and motivated Shamrock side to control the tempo and deliver a deserved win.