Benfica host Bologna in Portugal on Wednesday evening looking to guarantee themselves knockout Champions League football in February. The Italians have struggled to cope with the demands of league and European football this term, and are currently sitting fourth from bottom in the UCL table with just one point and one goal scored.

Benfica currently occupy a healthy 14th place out of 36, but lost two ties to Feyenoord and Bayern Munchen before recovering to win 3-2 away at Monaco. The Portuguese side face Barcelona and Juventus in the New Year, so will be full motivation for Wednesday's tie with Bologna as a win will see them almost certainly qualified for the playoffs with games to spare.

Due to losing manager Thiago Motta, captain Lewis Ferguson to injury and considerable squad turnover in the summer window, Bologna have had a very mixed start to the season. While Ferguson is slowly starting to get minutes again, Bologna suffered a huge blow when star forward Orsolini suffered a hamstring injury on Coppa Italia duty last week, and he will be missing until the turn of the year. Key midfielder Aebischer continues to be a big miss.

Given the above squad issues and the fact that Bologna would need three wins from their matches away at Benfica, Sporting CP and at home against Dortmund, our analysis suggests that they may turn their attention to maximising performance in the league. Bologna host Fiorentina in a derby match on Sunday, and coach Vincenzo Italiano knows that a big win in that match is more crucial than saving some face in a disastrous Champions League campaign.

Chance creation has been at a premium for Bologna in their bigger matches of late. They scored twice from just 0.54 xG against Juventus at the weekend, while last time out in the Champions League against Lille they only produced 0.50 xG outside of a set piece and repeated rebound shots on a counter-attack in the second half, so their 2.12 xG doesn't look impressive in that context.

Benfica meanwhile are flying high. The 1-0 loss away at Bayern Munchen was the only match in the last 9 they didn't take a win from, and thanks to the fallout from Ruben Amorim's departure from Sporting CP, can go top of the Portuguese Primeira with a victory in their game in hand. With a trip to promoted side AVS coming on Sunday, Bruno Lage's men have no real need to rotate or rest and can concentrate on putting Bologna to the sword and sealing qualification.

Benfica's chance creation has been much better than Bologna's, with the Portuguese side registering over 4.00 xG against Atletico and Rio Ave in October and dominating the chance creation in recent wins over Monaco and Arouca away. Benfica hosted tough opposition in Vitoria de Guimaraes at the weekend, and expertly saw out the 1-0 win after Arkturkoglu bagged on the half hour mark. Given the contrasting fortunes, continued squad issues for Bologna and the questionable motivation for Bologna, we think getting 2.00 on the -1.0 line for Benfica to seal qualification represents decent value.

Best odds can be found at Bet365.