Lorenzo Sonego meets Fabian Marozsán today on grass, and the matchup favours Sonego strongly. Sonego has a proven track record on grass—his win rate on this surface is significantly higher than Marozsán’s, who has just two grass-court match victories in his career. Sonego also leads their only previous encounter in straight sets.

Looking at serve and groundstroke consistency, Sonego wins approximately 67% of first-serve points and 53% on his second serve—both comfortably ahead of Marozsán. His 81% first-serve percentage combined with a return game that earns free points more regularly puts him ahead in key moments. Marozsán, while talented, is more prone to extended rallies and lacks the flat-hitting game that is typically rewarded on turf.

Tactically, Sonego’s aggressive serve sets up opportunities to follow net and take early control of points. Marozsán relies on baseline depth and longer exchanges, which are less effective on grass. Sonego adapts quickly to different court speeds and offsets Marozsán’s lack of variety with superior slice and volley approaches.

Recent trends further tilt the scales: Sonego has performed well in grass lead-up events, converting close service games, while Marozsán’s solitary grass wins date back, with his limited exposure leaving questions about his comfort at this level. Given his stronger grass form, superior serve metrics, tactical flexibility, and proven matchup edge, backing Sonego to win today is a smart, statistically grounded call.