The 2025 NBA Finals commence tonight at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, where the Thunder host the Indiana Pacers in Game 1. Oklahoma City enters as a large home favorite, reflecting their dominant regular season and playoff performances. Led by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder aim to capitalize on their home-court advantage and set the tone for the series.

The Thunder have been formidable throughout the postseason, sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies, edging out the Denver Nuggets in seven games, and dispatching the Minnesota Timberwolves in five during the Western Conference Finals. Their playoff run has been characterized by a potent combination of offensive firepower and stifling defense. Conversely, the Pacers have embraced the role of underdogs, upsetting the Milwaukee Bucks, overcoming the Cleveland Cavaliers, and defeating the New York Knicks in six games to clinch the Eastern Conference title.

Oklahoma City boasts a league-best net rating of +12.7, underpinned by an offensive rating of 119.2 (3rd) and a defensive rating of 106.6 (1st). They lead the league in turnovers per game (11.7) and rank third in opponent points per game (107.6). Indiana, while potent offensively with a 115.4 rating (9th), has a middling defensive rating of 113.3 (T-13th) and allows 115.1 points per game (17th).

The Thunder's statistical profile suggests a significant edge. They average 120.5 points per game, compared to the Pacers' 117.4. Their defense is more robust, allowing fewer points and generating more turnovers. In their two regular-season meetings, Oklahoma City swept the Pacers, averaging 126.0 points per game with a 113.3 defensive rating, despite missing key players like Chet Holmgren.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been exceptional against Indiana, scoring 45 and 33 points in their regular-season encounters. His ability to penetrate defenses and draw fouls poses a significant challenge for the Pacers. Jalen Williams complements him as a secondary scorer, averaging 20.4 points per game in the playoffs. Defensively, the Thunder's versatility and shot-blocking, led by Holmgren, can disrupt Indiana's offensive rhythm.

Oklahoma City has been dominant at home, winning eight of nine playoff games at the Paycom Center with an average margin of victory of 24.6 points. Historically, NBA Finals favorites of -9 or higher are 7-1 straight up, though 4-4 against the spread . Given the Thunder's statistical superiority and home-court advantage, they are well-positioned to cover the spread in Game 1.

Best odds available at SBK.