The Thunder return to Gainbridge Fieldhouse for Game 4 on June 13 aiming to level the series and cover the 5.5-point spread. Trailing 2–1 after a surprising 116–107 loss in Game 3, Oklahoma City must reclaim their defensive identity against a Pacers team riding home momentum.

So far, the series has been a strategic tug-of-war. Indiana claimed Game 3 by shooting 51.8%—exploiting defensive lapses from the Thunder—while Tyrese Haliburton logged a stellar 22 points, 11 assists, and 9 rebounds. OKC, balanced yet forced out of rhythm, allowed bench scoring to tilt the game 49–18 in favor of the Pacers.

Advanced metrics reaffirm the Thunder’s edge. They lead the playoffs with the NBA's top defensive rating and boast the best turnover margin. Game 4 projections peg OKC as 6.5-point favorites on the road, reflecting confidence in their capacity to tighten the paint and limit open looks. Meanwhile, Indiana's high home shooting percentage may regress under increased defensive pressure.

What truly favors Oklahoma City is their matchup versatility. With Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander's ability to drive and draw fouls, and support from Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Alex Caruso, they control both perimeter and interior spaces. The Thunder's defensive rotations can stifle the Pacers’ pick-and-roll and above-the-break shooters, disrupting Indiana’s key creators like Haliburton and Mathurin.

Trend-wise, OKC has a history of bouncing back swiftly after losses. They overcame a 2–1 deficit earlier this postseason and have covered spreads on the road consistently. Conversely, Game 3 exposed their ability to unravel under pressure, emphasizing the importance of regrouped focus. Given their track record and statistical superiority, the Thunder are well positioned to cover and swing momentum back with a win in Game 4.

Best odds available at vbet.