The Minnesota Timberwolves aim to avenge their recent 119-115 defeat to the New Orleans Pelicans on March 19, with both encounters held at the Target Center. Having suffered consecutive losses, Minnesota is expected to approach this matchup with heightened determination. Conversely, the Pelicans, after snapping a three-game losing streak with their recent victory, seek to maintain their momentum in this rematch.​

A pivotal development for the Pelicans is the confirmed absence of star forward Zion Williamson, who is sidelined due to a low back contusion. Williamson's impact has been substantial, averaging 24.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 5.3 assists over 30 games this season. Notably, the Pelicans have struggled without him, posting a 9-31 record in his absence and a negative 18-22 mark against the spread. 

In their previous matchup, the Pelicans dominated the paint, outscoring the Timberwolves 54-36 in that area. This is particularly significant considering Minnesota's typically robust interior defense, especially when center Rudy Gobert is active; they rank 13th in the league for opponent paint points allowed. With Williamson unavailable, the Pelicans may find it challenging to replicate their interior scoring success, potentially allowing the Timberwolves to adjust their defensive strategy effectively.​

Additionally, the Pelicans exhibited an exceptional three-point shooting performance in the last game, converting 44.8% (13-of-29) of their attempts, markedly higher than their season average of 34.7%, which ranks in the league's bottom eight. In contrast, the Timberwolves are among the top five teams in both three-point percentage and in three-point makes and attempts. A regression to the mean in shooting percentages could favor Minnesota in this aspect.​

Our projections make the Timberwolves as 15.5-point favorites for this encounter. Given the factors discussed, there appears to be marginal value in favoring the home team to get revenge and cover the substantial spread.