UCD’s overall record flatters them slightly, with 6 wins officially recorded — but one of those was a technical victory awarded after Wexford fielded an ineligible player on opening day, a game UCD actually lost 0-3 on the pitch. That leaves just five genuine wins from 18 matches, all of which have come against the current bottom five. Their recent form — unbeaten in their last three — has perhaps led to a skewed market, but closer inspection suggests these results were fortunate. A 96th-minute penalty snatched three points away at Finn Harps, and their goal in the draw with league leaders Dundalk came via a goalkeeper error from a free kick. Their only convincing result in that stretch was a win over bottom-placed Athlone.

At home, UCD have struggled all season. They’ve won just once in front of their own sparse crowds (excluding the awarded win), with 4 draws and 3 losses from 8 played. Their playing surface doesn’t suit their style, and they’ve failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches overall, registering just 5 goals in 9 home games — the second worst home scoring record in the league.

Cobh Ramblers, by contrast, come in as one of the league’s most dangerous away sides. They’ve scored 15 goals in 9 away games — joint top in the division — and average 1.67 goals and 1.52 xG per 90 away from home. They’ve also conceded the second-fewest xGA on the road, showing balance at both ends of the pitch. Their only two away defeats were narrow losses to top three opposition: a 1-0 loss to Dundalk via an own goal and a 2-1 defeat to Bray thanks to a 95th-minute penalty. Otherwise, they’ve won 5 and drawn 2 on their travels.

This is also the third meeting between these sides this season. Cobh won the most recent game 1-0 at home, and in the reverse fixture away, they were leading until conceding in the 89th minute to draw 1-1 — showing they’ve already matched and bettered UCD on multiple occasions.

Cobh’s recent run of 7 wins in 8 was only interrupted by a draw against Longford, and with 32 goals this season — more than double UCD’s tally of 12 — they carry significantly more attacking threat. Well-managed, consistently resilient, and carrying clear promotion credentials, Cobh Ramblers look like the stronger side in every department. At current odds, taking them Draw No Bet offers solid value against an overvalued UCD side.

Best odds available at BetMGM or Unibet.