It’s a tale of two sides whose league positions don’t tell the full story as bottom side Värnamo host early table toppers AIK in midweek Allsvenskan action.

Värnamo sit bottom of the table with four defeats from four, but the underlying numbers suggest they’ve been desperately unlucky. They’ve averaged 1.66 xG per game yet scored just 0.75 goals per game, with last-gasp defeats to Brommapojkarna and Sirius (91st and 85th minute goals respectively) painting a cruel picture of their performances. At the other end, they’ve conceded 1.75 goals per game despite allowing just 1.24 xG.

AIK, meanwhile, top the table on 10 points, but their record flatters them. They’ve scored 1.5 goals per game from just 1.19 xG and needed late goals to edge past both Norrköping and newly promoted Östers. They’ve also been second-best in their games against GAIS and Norrköping on chance quality, and now face suspension problems at CB with Isherwood out. On top of this suspension, AIK are missing starting LW Redkin to an injury sustained two weeks back, and around 6 rotation players with longstanding injuries from the 2024 campaign. Their squad is beginning to look stretched heading into their 2nd of 3 games in just 7 days.

Värnamo will be buoyed by the return of key defensive midfielder Wanderson and will be hungry to turn their underlying performances into results. This makes Värnamo's handicap on home turf look generous. At home, against an overperforming AIK side with defensive concerns, they should arguably be priced closer to parity. AIK have a difficult tie against Elfsborg coming up on Sunday and may well have half an eye on this match.

Best odds can be found at Bet365.