RKC Waalwijk +2.0 Asian Handicap vs PSV Eindhoven looks to offer good value, given Waalwijk’s consistent performances on this handicap and PSV’s recent struggles on the road.

Waalwijk have been very reliable on the +2.0 handicap this season, covering it in 16 of their 24 league games, pushing three times, and losing just five times. However, three of those five losses came when Waalwijk received a red card, which significantly impacted their ability to stay competitive. More recently, since their form has improved over their last 12 matches, they have won this handicap in 11 of those 12, with the only exception being a push.

At home, Waalwijk’s record on this handicap is even stronger. In 12 home games, they have covered the +2.0 line in 9 matches, pushed once (in a 0-2 loss to Ajax, where they held Ajax scoreless until the 76th minute), and lost twice—both times when receiving a red card. Since that loss to Ajax, they have covered this handicap in every home game, including against strong teams like Feyenoord and Utrecht.

PSV’s early season dominance seems to have faded, and while they comfortably beat Waalwijk 5-1 on the opening day, circumstances are much different now. PSV have been signigicantly poorer away than at home, they have won 7 of their 12 away games, drawing once, and losing four times. Although that record is quite good, their away form has taken a notable dip recently—in their last four away games, they have lost three and drawn one, conceding three goals in three of those four games. They even suffered a 3-1 loss to bottom-six side Zwolle and drew 3-3 against Nijmegen.

A key factor in PSV’s struggles is their fixture congestion. They played away in London against Arsenal in midweek, despite being 7-1 down from the first leg, they still fielded a lineup with many starters. This extra travel and game time will likely add to fatigue, especially in a squad that already has a few injuries. Additionally, with PSV now 8 points behind Ajax, their title hopes have faded significantly, and several key players may already be looking ahead to the international break.

On the other hand, Waalwijk remain highly motivated, as they are in a relegation battle. With three wins in their last five games, they are mounting a fight to stay up, and with a game in hand, they are just seven points from safety. They cannot afford to roll over against PSV and will likely set up defensively to frustrate them. Forgotten young star Mohamed Ihatteren has also joined Waalwijk recently, and has been playing very well - his creative threat could catch PSV off guard.

PSV have only covered the -2.0 handicap in 3 of their 12 away games this season, and given their poor away form, fatigue from their recent schedule, and Waalwijk’s impressive record on this line, there seems to be some good value in backing Waalwijk +2.0 here.