The Miami Heat and Golden State Warriors are set to face off tonight in a highly anticipated matchup, highlighted by the recent trade that sent Jimmy Butler to the Warriors in exchange for Andrew Wiggins and other assets. Since Butler's debut with Golden State, the Warriors have achieved a 16-4 record, while the Heat have struggled, enduring one of their worst stretches in recent years. ​

The Warriors aim to rebound from a recent road loss to the Atlanta Hawks, a game in which Stephen Curry was absent due to a pelvic contusion. Curry's status for tonight remains questionable but there is great optimism that he will play. Conversely, the Heat recently snapped a 10-game losing streak with a victory over the Charlotte Hornets.​

This will be the second meeting between the two teams this season. The Heat won the first encounter on January 7, defeating the Warriors 114-98 in San Francisco. However, both teams have undergone significant roster changes since that game, most notably the Butler-Wiggins trade.​ The Warriors also no longer have Schroder who started and was a net -13 by plus/minus, Kuminga is now healthy and available for Golden State after missing the previous encounter, and Nikola Jovic for the Heat is out with an injury tonight who was a net +25 in that game by plus/minus.

Situational trends indicate that the Warriors have performed well in revenge spots this year, with a 4-1 record against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU) when the previous game was played this season and the line is -6 or less. The Heat have struggled as home underdogs, going 3-10 in such situations, while the Warriors have a positive 12-7 record as road favorites. Additionally, the Heat have underperformed following victories, with an 11-18 ATS record after a win, whereas the Warriors have an 18-10-1 ATS record following a loss.​

Since the All-Star break, the Warriors rank third in net rating, bolstered by their defense, which ranks second during this period. Offensively, they lead the league in assist percentage, showcasing improved cohesion among playmakers such as Draymond Green, Stephen Curry, and Jimmy Butler. In contrast, the Heat rank 18th in net rating since the All-Star break, with their offense in the bottom 10. A significant issue for Miami has been a shooting slump, as they rank in the bottom 10 in three-point percentage and bottom six in three-pointers made per game during this span.​

Three-point shooting is likely to be a decisive factor in this game. The Warriors rank third in three-point attempts and fourth in three-point makes. The Heat's defense is average in terms of opponent three-point percentage but allows 13.7 made three-pointers per game, placing them near the bottom 10. Since the All-Star break, the Heat rank 22nd in opponent three-point percentage. For Miami to compete effectively, they must improve their perimeter defense and match the Warriors' three-point shooting. This will be challenging given their recent slump and the Warriors' ninth-ranked defense in both opponent three-point attempts and makes allowed per game. In their previous matchup, the Warriors shot just 28% from three-point range (14-50), while the Heat made 40% of their attempts. An adjustment in this area could significantly influence the outcome.​

Furthermore, the Warriors have improved their free-throw rate since acquiring Butler, now ranking fifth in free-throw attempts per game at 24.8 and top four in free-throw percentage. Conversely, the Heat have struggled in this area, averaging just 18.1 free-throw attempts per game since the All-Star break, placing them third last in the league. Over the past 11 games, the Heat rank last in free-throw attempts per game.​

Our projections favor the Warriors by 7 points, suggesting value in backing Golden State to secure a decisive victory and even the season series.