The Miami Heat are set to host the Washington Wizards tonight, aiming to rebound from a heartbreaking 116-112 overtime loss to the New York Knicks just last night—a game in which they squandered a 19-point lead in the third quarter. Conversely, the Wizards have been exceeding market expectations, covering the spread in nine of their last twelve games, indicating consistent outperformance relative to market expectations.​

The Wizards' recent uptick in performance aligns with roster enhancements. The acquisitions of Marcus Smart and Khris Middleton have bolstered Washington's competitiveness.

Recent trends highlight challenges for Miami in similar scenarios as tonight. The Heat are 0-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games following an overtime contest. In contrast, the Wizards have performed well with a rest advantage, holding a 9-6 ATS record in such situations. 

Injury reports further complicate Miami's outlook. Starting center Kel'el Ware has been ruled out for tonight's matchup while forward Andrew Wiggins is listed as questionable with a right ankle sprain. Given the back-to-back scheduling, there's potential for additional Miami players to be rested or limited.

Historically, Miami has struggled to cover substantial spreads at home. When positioned as home favorites of five points or more, the Heat have covered just 36.4% of games dating back to last season, indicating a tendency to underperform relative to market expectations in these spots.​

While season-long metrics position the Wizards unfavorably—ranking last in net rating and bottom three in both offensive and defensive ratings—the past ten games tell a different story, with Washington climbing to 20th in net rating. This improvement is underscored by an effective field goal percentage ranking 11th during this stretch, reflecting more fluid offensive execution and an assist percentage of 67.9%, placing them in the top seven teams.​

Washington's strategy may involve exploiting Miami's potential fatigue, especially in transition play. The Wizards rank in the top 12 for fast break points per game this season and maintain a top-four pace, suggesting they could capitalize on the Heat's tired legs following an overtime game and back-to-back scheduling.​

Considering these factors—the Heat's recent struggles following overtime games, injury concerns, and the Wizards' improved form and rest advantage—there appears to be value in backing Washington to cover the spread in this matchup down to +8.