Their latest setback came in a frustrating 1-1 home draw against struggling Ipswich Town, a match in which they felt they should have taken three points, given Ipswich had just 10 men for the majority, but Alex Palmer’s debut heroics in goal denied them full honours. Despite their recent struggles, Villa remain a formidable force at home, having gone 12 consecutive league matches without defeat at Villa Park (W6, D6). However, they will need to produce a much-improved performance if they are to stand any chance of disrupting a Liverpool side that has dominated this fixture in recent years.
Liverpool travel to the Midlands riding the high of a 21-game unbeaten run in the Premier League (W14, D7), a streak that has cemented their place at the top of the table. Their most recent outing saw them edge past Wolves 2-1 at Anfield, a game in which they were far from their best but still found a way to win—an increasingly familiar theme for Arne Slot’s side this season. Despite struggling in the final third at times, Liverpool’s relentless intensity and pressing have carried them through difficult moments, and they will be eager to extend their dominance over Aston Villa, a team they have beaten in 11 of their last 14 league meetings (D2, L1). Notably, Villa’s only victory in that period was the infamous 7-2 thrashing of Liverpool in 2020—a result that still stands as one of the most shocking in Premier League history.Liverpool’s record at Villa Park is another cause for optimism for the visitors. The Reds have won more matches (43) and scored more goals (160) at this stadium in all competitions than at any other ground outside Anfield. Their efficiency away from home has been a key factor in their title charge, and they will be confident of exploiting Villa’s defensive frailties, with the hosts failing to keep a clean sheet in any of their last eight home matches.
Stats Watch:
- In 32 previous meetings, 26 have featured at least two goals, 20 have seen a minimum of three goals, and 17 have produced goals at both ends. Only one of the last 17 encounters has finished with fewer than 1.5 goals.
- Aston Villa have the joint third-highest BTTS rate in the Premier League this season, with both sides finding the net in 68% of their matches. Liverpool’s BTTS rate is lower at 56%.
- Despite their wealth of attacking options, Villa sit seventh-bottom in xG per 90 (1.39), whereas Liverpool lead the league with an xG of 1.93 per 90.
- Villa have failed to score in just two of their 13 home matches—against Arsenal in their opening home game and in a 0-0 draw with Manchester United between Champions League fixtures. Liverpool have scored in 24 of 25 league games, only drawing a blank in their 1-0 home defeat to Nottingham Forest. Their 34 away goals are the highest in the league, with Bournemouth the closest challenger (27).
- Both teams rank in the top five for average cards per game, with Villa’s matches averaging 5.08 cards (3rd highest) and Liverpool’s averaging 4.88 (5th highest). Villa’s home games see an increase to 5.54, while Liverpool’s away games average slightly lower at 4.77.
- Villa’s matches average 10.92 corners per game, while Liverpool’s average 10.32. At home, Villa’s average rises to 11.23, while Liverpool’s away matches see a slight drop to 9.77 corners per game.
- Villa rank fourth for the lowest xGA at home (1.13 per 90), while Liverpool have the best defensive record in away games, conceding an xGA of just 1.19 per 90.
- Mohamed Salah leads the league in xG per 90 (0.87) and is second only to Erling Haaland in total shots taken. He has scored 23 goals from an xG of 20.59, overperforming his expected tally.
- Ollie Watkins ranks seventh in xG per 90 (0.57), with 11 goals from an xG of 10.47.
Team News
Villa’s defensive instability is compounded by a growing injury crisis, with Boubacar Kamara the latest casualty after limping off in the Ipswich draw. His absence further depletes a backline already missing key names such as Pau Torres, Ezri Konsa, and Matty Cash, forcing Emery to shuffle his defensive setup once again. However, the return of Tyrone Mings and the potential full debut of Marcus Rashford offer some hope for Villa.
Liverpool, too, have injury concerns, with Tyler Morton (shoulder) and Joe Gomez (hamstring) ruled out. Cody Gakpo, who missed the Wolves clash after taking a knock against Everton, remains a doubt, while Curtis Jones is back from suspension and could slot into midfield. Darwin Núñez and Kostas Tsimikas may also come into the lineup as Slot looks to rotate his squad amid a busy fixture schedule. Mohamed Salah, ever the talisman for Liverpool, will have extra motivation—one more assist away from home will make him just the third player in Premier League history to register 10 assists on the road in a single season, a feat previously achieved only by Cesc Fàbregas and Muzzy Izzet.
Ollie Watkins remains Villa’s primary threat, with only his goals against Brighton (7) and Arsenal (6) outnumbering his five career strikes against Liverpool. He will need to be at his clinical best if Villa are to take anything from this encounter. Meanwhile, Liverpool’s Luis Díaz has been in fine form, scoring his ninth league goal of the season last weekend—his best tally in a single campaign since joining the club.
With Villa struggling against teams at the top of the table—losing six of their last seven Premier League matches against sides starting the day in first place—the odds are stacked against them. However, with their European aspirations on the line and Villa Park remaining a difficult place to visit, Emery’s side will be desperate to cause an upset and reignite their campaign.