Augsburg vs Bayern Munich: Bundesliga Preview

Bayern are holding on to a 6-point lead at the top of the table but have dropped 4 points in their last 4 games with a shock loss to Bochum and a tame 1-1 draw at Union Berlin. Augsburg are up next as Vincent Kompany looks to return the Bundesliga title to Bayern at his first attempt. Any Bayern fans expecting an easy away day may be disappointed however, as Kompany's men head to the league's joint-best home defence. Augsburg are unbeaten in 11 games since mid-January, conceding just 3 goals in the process.

Setting the Scene

Augsburg remain hopeful of European qualification this campaign after embarking on this club record unbeaten streak. These ambitions took a dent last week as Augsburg were held to a 1-1 draw against Hoffenheim to end their 5 game run without conceding a goal. The home side will however take inspiration from the fact that they've defeated Bayern in 2 of the last 3 league meetings on their home patch.

Bayern Munich start a daunting few weeks here, as they have two Champions League legs against Internazionale and a Der Klassiker tie against Dortmund to contend with in the 12 days following the Augsburg match. Kompany will have to manage his squad after a number of injury and fitness setbacks to his star men, but will take comfort in the fact that no team has ever squandered a 6-point lead at this stage in the Bundesliga.

Bayern Injury Blows

The main talking point in the Bayern camp is how they are going to contend without the services of some of their main men. Alphonso Davies suffered a cruciate ligament injury while away with Canada that will see him sit out almost all of 2025, while Upamecano also played his last game of the season for France before an injury. Rotation defender for both of these positions Hiroki Ito had his season ended in last weekend's St Pauli game, and CDM Pavlovic will do well to return before the end of Bayern's campaign after contracting glandular fever. Goretzka has suffered a back injury, while Coman and Neuer are expected back from their knocks within the next couple of weeks. Kompany is therefore left with little option but to go full strength for each of his big games over the next fortnight and hope that his men can withstand the mental and physical pressure.

Augsburg have a relatively clean bill of health, with Reece Oxford returning to fitness after contracting Covid and longer-term injuries to ex-Bayern winger Yusuf Kadabayi and rotation player Robert Gumny.

Stats Watch

Tight Ship at Home: Augsburg's home record of 12 goals conceded in 13 games is joint-best with Mainz. They have however only scored 15 goals, so their mean defence is coming at a cost to their attacking play.

Contrasting Styles: Bayern's total goals per match of 3.9 in the joint-highest in the league alongside Holstein Kiel. Augsburg sit second-lowest on this metric at just 2.4 goals per game, with only St Pauli's games seeing fewer goals.

Chance Creation: Michael Olise (10.1) and Joshua Kimmich (8.3) lead the league on Expected Assists, highlighting the difficulty facing Augsburg on Friday. Augsburg's best individual effort on this ranking is Giannoulis's 4.5 xA.

While Bayern Munich enter the match as favourites, Augsburg's solid home performances against them in recent years and their stubborn form suggest they could pose challenges. Bayern's injury concerns, particularly in defensive positions, may offer Augsburg opportunities to continue their impressive home record against the Bavarians. Nonetheless, Bayern's attacking capabilities under Kompany's possession based system should leave them confident of taking the necessary 3 points home with them.