The 2024 NFL season kicks off with a bang as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens in a thrilling rematch of last season’s AFC Championship.
Chiefs
Despite winning the Superbowl last year, got off to a slow start in their previous campaign with a loss at the hands of the Lions in week 1, ruining their banner night. They come into this season's opener looking much healthier and are sending clear signals during pre-season that they want to get their offense off to a good start early on this time around.
Last season the Chiefs finished as the 8th best offense by DVOA despite having the best QB in the league, showing that they have much to improve on this year despite the already high expectations. Rashee Rice seems to have established himself as the clear WR1 option as a 2nd year player, while Xavier Worthy the recently drafted rookie should also be looking to make some noise as he has the speed reminiscent of Tyreek Hill, the sort of speed Mahomes missed last season. Unfortunately, Marquise (Hollywood) Brown will be out for this game but Chiefs retained Juju Smith-Schuster who will be filling in.
Steve Spagnuol, the Chiefs defensive coordinator, did a phenomenal job last season to make up for a struggling offense and keep them in games. Kansas ranked 7th in DVOA on defense and were particularly good at stopping the pass, finishing as the 3rd best pass defense in terms of EPA/play, behind just Baltimore and Cleveland. The great news for them is star defensive tackle Chris Jones is still there and unlike last season, he is ready to go for week 1. His ability to put pressure on the QB will go a long way against someone as elusive as Lamar.
Ravens
After a heartbreaking end to last season at the hands of these mighty Chiefs, the Ravens and 2023 MVP Lamar Jackson will be out for revenge!
This Baltimore offense finished as a top 4 unit by DVOA, and will be looking to pick up where they left off. However, things may not be as easy as they seem to begin with, having lost Odell Beckham Jr. and not added anyone else at WR. Although there is a clear lack of depth, their 3 starting receivers have already got a proven connection with Lamar and it puts them in a good position for this game with Zay Flowers looking to be the number 1 option in his second year, while the addition of King Henry at running back looks to be promising. Mark Andrews is back after missing a heavy portion of last season, but he is also having to recover from a car accident and his overall health situation is a worry.
On the defensive side, Baltimore lost their most crucial piece, the defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. He is arguably the greatest defensive mind in the league and despite not having a plethora of talent, he trained his players up to be elite - finishing as one of the best defenses of all time. Given they have also lost key defensive pieces like Patrick Queen, it may take time for this defense to start clicking again in a new system - and to be facing arguably the best offense in week 1 is a tough ask. The star of this defense is Kyle Hamilton, they will rely on his leadership and versatility to get them through this game.
Trends
- Mahomes is 15-4 in September games, and 5-1 in season openers over the course of his career
- The Super Bowl champs are 14-9-1 ATS in Week 1 of the following season since 2000.
- Chiefs have won the AFC West for eight consecutive years – it's the longest active division streak across the four major sports
- Jackson is 51-30-2 1H ATS in his career, making him the best QB 1H ATS in the last 20 years of 257 QBs
