What a way to start the week with a divisional matchup between two of the league’s most efficient offenses. Both teams are off to a winning start but only one can remain unbeaten after tonight.
The Bills have shifted their offense to a more run-heavy approach since the addition of new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Having a top 5 offensive line unit allows them to excel in run blocking, with the Bills running the ball 33 times in their first game vs the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday. Despite only 23 pass attempts they managed to average 8.9 yards per pass behind an efficient outing from QB Josh Allen who completed 78.3% of passes. The main advantage of a more run focused offense is being able to control the time off possession and keep the other team’s offense off the field - against an explosive Miami offense this could prove to be an effective game plan. The Dolphins run defense is the main concern as they have a weak defensive line that might struggle to win the battle in the trenches without help from the backfield, which will lead to Buffalo receivers being open at a higher rate.
Miami are coming off an extremely lucky win, after the Jaguars fumbled a yard before the goal line on what was a near guaranteed touchdown in the 2nd half, after which the Dolphins came onto the field and QB Tua found Tyreek Hill for an 80 yard bomb and they never looked back since. They were hugely helped out by the Jaguars 20% 3rd down conversion rate - which is an unsustainable number to expect from the Bills who have a much better late-down offense. The Dolphins will have to make this a shootout if they want any chance of winning this game, they are an explosive offense but not quite as consistent drive-to-drive. All eyes will be on how this Dolphins offensive line holds up against a ferocious Bills front, if Tua is able to release the ball quickly and they are able to scheme guys open effectively, then it should mitigate the Bills pass rush.
We will be looking out for a bet on the 2nd Half under if the Bills go into the break with a lead given their tendency to try to waste time and keep the ball on the ground.
