Historical Edge
The Manchester derby has seen 194 encounters in total, with Manchester United holding a slight advantage with 79 victories to City’s 62 and 53 draws. In the Premier League specifically, United have claimed 25 wins in 54 matches, while City have 20, with nine draws.
Recently, however, City have had the upper hand. They’ve won four of the last five Premier League meetings against United, and have triumphed in each of the last three derbies at the Etihad. United will be hoping to break this recent dominance as they look to get their season back on track.
City’s Struggles Continue
Pep Guardiola’s men are enduring one of the most challenging periods of his managerial reign. City have only won once in their last 10 matches, suffering seven defeats and two draws. Their defense has been a significant concern, conceding 23 goals during this run. Despite their possession-heavy style (with 63.6% average possession), City have failed to translate that into dominant performances.
City’s home form has been a mixed bag this season. With five wins, one draw, and a shocking 4-0 defeat to Spurs at the Etihad, Guardiola’s team has been inconsistent. In fact, they have failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 15 league matches, which highlights their ongoing defensive frailties.
United’s Road Woes
On the other hand, Manchester United are also struggling, particularly on the road. After a solid run of seven unbeaten matches in all competitions (five wins and two draws), United have now lost their last two Premier League outings. Their away form in the league has been dismal, with only one win away from home—against Southampton—since the start of the season.
Ruben Amorim’s side has failed to win any of their last five Premier League away matches. Despite these struggles, United did manage to get a 2-1 win over Viktoria Plzen in the Europa League, providing some much-needed confidence.
Key Players to Watch
Erling Haaland: The Norwegian forward is a constant threat, scoring 13 goals in the league, tied at the top of the Premier League scoring chart with Mohamed Salah. Haaland has also been a menace in Manchester derbies, netting six times for City in these fixtures..
Amad Diallo: Diallo has been one of United’s standout performers this season, creating chances and providing six assists, tied for third in the league. While he’s yet to score in the league, his creativity and pace could pose significant problems for City’s defence.
The Tactical Battle
Manchester City’s possession-based style under Guardiola has been their trademark, with the team controlling the ball more than any other side in the league. However, their inability to convert this possession into goals has been an issue. Despite having the highest average possession in the league, City has only created 44 Big Chances, ranking 8th in the league in this regard. United will likely aim to frustrate City with a compact defensive setup, looking to exploit the spaces left by City’s attacking intent, particularly with players like Bruno Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho, who could cause issues on the counter.
Injuries and Suspensions
Manchester City’s injury crisis continues to deepen. Key players such as Rodri, Nathan Ake, and Oscar Bobb will miss out, and defenders John Stones and Manuel Akanji are also doubts. Rico Lewis will be suspended for the derby after his controversial equalizer against Crystal Palace, further depleting City’s defensive options..
United’s injury concerns are far less severe, with only Luke Shaw still out with a calf issue. Jonny Evans is also doubtful, but Amorim has a relatively healthy squad to choose from. However, after two consecutive league defeats, he may be tempted to make changes to the starting XI, especially in attack, with Rasmus Højlund likely to start after his brace in Europe.
City’s Need for a Win
With the defending champions sitting eight points behind league leaders Liverpool with an extra game played, their chances of securing a fifth consecutive Premier League title are rapidly diminishing. To stay within touching distance of the top, City must start picking up wins, and there’s no better way to do so than with a victory in the derby.
United, too, need to improve their away form to climb the table. A win at the Etihad would be a huge statement, but history doesn’t favor them, as they’ve not won their last four visits to City. However, Amorim will be looking to channel the momentum from his first European victories into a solid Premier League performance.
Conclusion
While Manchester City go into the derby as favorites based on their recent dominance, their current form and defensive issues make them vulnerable. This encounter promises to be an intriguing clash between two teams in need of a much-needed victory, with bragging rights and vital points on the line.
