Let’s break down the top candidates and analyse their chances of winning the prestigious award.
Josh Allen – QB, Buffalo Bills: Odds - 1.4
Josh Allen is arguably having the best season of his career, making him the current MVP favourite. The Bills, already NFC East champions, have won seven straight games, including his game-clinching touchdown run against the Chiefs in Week 11. This was a defining moment that will likely resonate with MVP voters.
Allen has been spectacular both through the air and on the ground. He has 20 passing touchdowns and 334 rushing yards with six rushing touchdowns, showing the dual-threat capabilities that make him a constant headache for defenses. His play has been consistent, with just five interceptions and one fumble so far.
However, Allen's isn’t there just yet. The Bills' upcoming schedule could expose them to potential slip-ups, which might undermine Allen's MVP bid. If the Bills falter in any of their final games, especially against formidable opponents like Detroit, Allen’s MVP hopes could diminish. Still, he is in prime position to win his first MVP award if Buffalo finishes strong.
Saquon Barkley – RB, Philadelphia Eagles: Odds - 4.5
Saquon Barkley has turned heads with a historic season that could make him the first running back since Adrian Peterson in 2012 to win MVP. Barkley has been the driving force behind the Eagles' success, as they have won eight straight games. He’s currently on pace to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record with 2,123 yards, which would be a monumental achievement in the modern NFL.
Barkley’s recent performance has been remarkable, including a 302-yard total against the Rams, which showcased his ability to take over games. His 107-yard performance against the Ravens, who boast the league's best run defense, further solidified his MVP case.
However, history is working against Barkley. The MVP has largely been a quarterback's award in recent years and Barkley’s chances remain relatively slim: likely he needs a record-breaking season, Eagles form to remain strong and mediocre form from QB rivals. Still, Barkley is a strong contender for Offensive Player of the Year, and his MVP candidacy remains an intriguing storyline.
Lamar Jackson – QB, Baltimore Ravens: 10.0
Lamar Jackson has been a dominant force this season, especially in the first two months, which helped him maintain his position near the top of the MVP race. Jackson has already amassed career highs in passing yards and passing touchdowns, and he has added another 678 rushing yards to his stat line. His performance has been key to keeping the Ravens competitive, despite struggles on defense and special teams.
Jackson’s chance of winning a third MVP is still alive, but recent setbacks have hurt his momentum. The Ravens have lost two of their last three games. If Baltimore fails to secure the AFC North title, it will likely severely hurt Jackson’s MVP chances.
Despite the setbacks, Jackson’s impressive individual numbers and the Ravens’ potential to still make a playoff push keep him in the race. If he can rebound in the final weeks and lead Baltimore to a strong finish, he could make it a close contest for the MVP.
Jared Goff – QB, Detroit Lions: 13.0
Jared Goff’s name might not be as flashy as Allen or Jackson, but he has quietly been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league. He leads the NFL with a remarkable 71.8% completion percentage and is in the top 10 in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. Goff has also guided the Lions to an 11-1 record with Detroit boasting the league’s highest point differential.
Over the course of six games, Goff set an impressive record by completing 82.8% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and just one interception. However, the argument against Goff winning MVP stems from the strength of his supporting cast. With an excellent offensive line, a dynamic wide receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, and a solid run game, Goff is seen by many as a product of his environment.
Despite his solid numbers, Goff still faces questions about whether he can truly be considered an elite quarterback. Goff’s upcoming tests against teams like the Packers, Bills and Vikings could be key. If he can continue to perform at a high level and lead the Lions to the Number one seed in NFC he could push himself into the MVP conversation.
Patrick Mahomes – QB, Kansas City Chiefs: 19.0
Patrick Mahomes, a two-time MVP winner and the reigning Super Bowl MVP, has had a down year by his standards. He’s on pace for his fewest passing touchdowns in a season, his most interceptions, and the lowest passer rating of his career. The Chiefs have also struggled at times, with narrow wins over weaker opponents like the Panthers and Raiders.
However, Mahomes is still one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the league, and if he can ignite a historic run to close out the season, he could still enter the MVP race. But for now, his lack of statistical dominance and the Chiefs’ inconsistent play make him a long shot to win a third MVP.
Conclusion
With just a few weeks remaining in the 2024 NFL season, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, and Lamar Jackson stand out as the main MVP contenders.. Allen is in the driver’s seat, with his incredible all-around play leading the Bills to a potential AFC top seed. Jackson and Goff remain strong challengers, but their paths to the MVP are more complicated. Added to this, the running back option in Barkley adds to the intrigue. It’s shaping up to be a thrilling finish to the season as these elite players battle for the ultimate individual honor.
