NBA Betting Insights Monday 7th April

ACEPICKS LEANS

DET -6.5

SACRAMENTO KINGS @ DETROIT PISTONS

Player News

Out: J. Ivey

Questionable: J. LaRavia, K. Murray, J. Duren, T. Harris 

Market

Opening: -6.5 DET / 228.5

Current: -6.5 DET / 230

Recent Form

SAC L10: 3-7 SU / 4-6 ATS / 3-7 OU

DET L10: 6-4 SU / 4-6 ATS / 5-5 OU

Trends

SAC: 9-19 SU as underdogs / 3-12 ATS on no rest

DET: 13-5 SU as home favourites / 20-14 SU after a loss

Analysis

The Sacramento Kings head to Detroit on the second night of a back-to-back as they aim to build on their recent momentum, having recorded back-to-back victories in their previous two games. They are coming off what could be considered their most impressive performance of the season — a road win over the Cavaliers as double-digit underdogs. The Pistons, meanwhile, are looking to rebound from a recent loss to the Memphis Grizzlies and will be hoping for the return of center Jalen Duren, who was sidelined in their last outing.

The season series currently leans in Detroit’s favour, with the Pistons winning the lone meeting back in December by a single point, 114-113. Since then, the Kings have undergone significant roster changes, most notably trading away De’Aaron Fox and acquiring Zach LaVine. LaVine is coming off one of his best individual performances of the season, having scored 37 points on an efficient 15-for-21 shooting effort just last night.

The primary matchup to monitor in this game will be interior scoring. With Sacramento playing on no rest, their outside shooting may suffer, prompting a greater emphasis on scoring in the paint. While the Kings do generate a high volume of attempts from both the paint and mid-range, their ability to succeed there may be limited by a Detroit defense that ranks 4th in the league in opponent paint points allowed. The potential return of Duren is a major factor — the Pistons are significantly more effective defensively when he’s in the lineup. Should he remain out, however, the Kings may find more success attacking the interior.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS @ MIAMI HEAT

Player News

Out: K. Oubre, A. Drummond, G. Yabusele, K. Love, I. Stevens

Questionable: J. Edwards, K. Lowry, A. Wiggins, H. Highsmith, T. Herro, A. Burks, B. Adebayo

Market

Opening: -12 MIA / 213

Current: -13 MIA / 214

Recent Form

PHI L10: 0-10 SU / 1-9 ATS / 6-4 OU

MIA L10: 6-4 SU / 9-1 ATS / 5-5 OU

Trends

PHI: 26-50-2 ATS in all games this season / 16-11-1 to the over as away underdogs

MIA: 18-24 SU after a loss / 15-9 to the over as home favourites

Analysis

The 76ers head to Miami to face a Heat team that has consistently outperformed market expectations in recent weeks, covering the spread in nine of their last ten outings. In contrast, Philadelphia finds itself in a markedly different state, having failed to record a single win in their past 11 games. With postseason hopes long gone, the 76ers appear fully committed to improving their draft position heading into next season.

Miami will be highly motivated to rebound from their recent pair of losses and are presented with an ideal opportunity to do so against a struggling Philadelphia side they convincingly defeated 118-95 in their own building just over a week ago. The Heat now hold a 3-0 advantage in the season series, underlining a clear stylistic and matchup edge over this Sixers squad. In that most recent encounter, Miami shot a blistering 46.5% from beyond the arc, converting 20 of 43 three-point attempts, and also dominated the interior with a +8 margin in paint points.

Given Miami’s significantly better perimeter shooting splits at home compared to on the road, there is ample reason to expect another efficient offensive performance. The 76ers, meanwhile, have struggled mightily to defend the perimeter all season, ranking second-worst in opponent three-point shooting percentage and seventh-worst in opponent threes made per game. While Miami may enter this contest with several key shooters listed as questionable, their depth remains strong enough to exploit what has consistently been one of the league’s weakest perimeter defenses.