Miami Heat @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Player News
Out: K. Love, C Holmgren
Questionable: T Herro, J. Jacquez
Market
Opening: -13.5 OKC / 219.5
Current: -14 OKC / 221.5
Recent Form
MIA L10: 4-6 SU / 3-7 ATS / 4-6 OU
OKC L10: 8-2 SU / 5-5 ATS / 7-2-1 OU
Trends
MIA: 10-17 ATS on the road / 9-19 ATS on 1 day rest
OKC: 64-20 SU / 18-8 ATS at home / 31-17 ATS as favourite
Analysis
The Thunder have established themselves as the league’s premier defensive team, winning games by an average margin of 15.9 points as home favorites. Led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, this young and dynamic squad has been nearly unstoppable, using their defensive intensity to dominate opponents. Meanwhile, Miami has undergone significant lineup changes in the past week, trading away star Jimmy Butler in exchange for Andrew Wiggins. While Wiggins brings defensive versatility, Butler’s shot-making and leadership will be sorely missed, especially in tight matchups like this one.
Team news will be a crucial factor in this contest, with Tyler Herro currently listed as questionable and backup guard Terry Rozier also uncertain to play. Against a team as disciplined as the Thunder, every scoring threat is essential, and any missing firepower could have a significant impact on Miami’s ability to keep pace. The Heat will need all available offensive weapons to challenge an elite Thunder defense.
Oklahoma City ranks first in several key defensive categories, including opponent fast-break points, points in the paint allowed, three-point percentage allowed, and overall shooting efficiency. This level of defensive dominance makes scoring difficult for any team, and it becomes an even taller task for a Heat squad that may be shorthanded.
On the offensive end, the Thunder continue to thrive, with MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading an ever-improving unit. They control possessions exceptionally well, ranking first in opponent points off turnovers, which provides them with stability and prevents opponents from capitalizing on careless mistakes. Their ability to play clean, disciplined basketball minimizes Miami’s opportunities for easy transition points.
One of the key battlegrounds in this matchup will be the mid-range game. The Thunder rank sixth in mid-range field goal attempts per game, an area where they excel. Meanwhile, the Heat struggle significantly in this department, allowing the highest field goal percentage from mid-range in the entire league. With this in mind, the Thunder should have a major scoring edge in one of their most effective shot zones, further tilting the matchup in their favor.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz
Player News
Out: D. Finney-Smith, G. Vincent, C Sexton, KJ Martin
Questionable: L. Doncic
Market
Opening: -7.5 LAL / 237.5
Current: -9 LAL / 235.5
Recent Form
LAL L10: 9-1 SU / 8-1-1 ATS / 7-3 OU
UTA L10: 2-8 SU / 3-7 ATS / 5-5 OU
Trends
LAL: 20-11 SU after a win / 54-31 1H SU
UTA: 10-29 SU after a loss / 5-18 SU at home / 23-58 1H SU
Analysis
These two teams recently faced off in Los Angeles, where the Lakers dominated in a blowout victory that marked Luka Dončić’s debut with the team. Dončić played just 24 minutes as he eased back from injury, though the limited game time was largely due to the lopsided nature of the contest. Now, the Lakers will look to replicate their strong start against a Jazz team that has struggled all season at home.
The betting market has responded accordingly, upgrading the Lakers since their last meeting. Given Utah’s defensive struggles, it’s no surprise that Los Angeles is expected to capitalize once again. Over the past 10 games, the Jazz have posted the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league, making them vulnerable against a Lakers offense that has been firing on all cylinders.
Los Angeles enters this game as one of the hottest teams in the NBA, winning nine of their last 10 games while consistently covering the spread. During this stretch, they rank second in net rating, combining the league’s fourth-best offense with the second-best defense. The addition of Dončić has only strengthened their offensive versatility, providing elite playmaking to complement LeBron James. The Lakers should continue exploiting Utah’s undersized defense, with Dončić and LeBron setting up a steady stream of lobs to their bigs.
Pace will play a major role in this matchup. The Lakers rank inside the top 10 in fast-break points per game, an area where Utah has struggled mightily, ranking as the third-worst fast-break defense in the league. Meanwhile, despite playing at the league’s 10th-fastest pace, the Jazz sit just 26th in fast-break points scored, failing to turn their tempo into efficient scoring opportunities.
With Dončić continuing to ramp up his volume and shake off any lingering rust from his debut that saw him go 1-7 from three-point range, the Lakers are well-positioned to secure back-to-back victories over Utah. Given the matchup advantages on both ends, Los Angeles should once again control the game and maintain their momentum.
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks
Player News
Out: J. Kuminga, A. Davis, D. Gafford, C Martin, D Lively
Questionable: D. Exum, P. Washington
Market
Opening: -3.5 GSW / 232.5
Current: -6.5 GSW / 233.5
Recent Form
GSW L10: 6-4 SU / 6-4 ATS / 8-2 OU
DAL L10: 5-5 SU / 5-3-2 ATS / 8-2 OU
Trends
GSW: 10-16 ATS after a win / 7-4 SU as away favourite / 11-3 to the over
DAL: 14-10-1 ATS after a loss / 15-11 ATS at home
Analysis
The Warriors have been perfect since Jimmy Butler joined the lineup, going 2-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). They now have the opportunity to extend their winning streak to three games for just the second time since mid-November. Meanwhile, Dallas finds itself in a tough spot, missing key frontcourt players, most notably new acquisition Anthony Davis, who suffered an injury in his debut. With three frontcourt players unavailable, the Mavericks face a major matchup disadvantage in the paint, an area where they already rank as a bottom-10 defense. The Warriors, on the other hand, have increased their interior scoring since Butler’s arrival, making this a significant edge for them.
The addition of Butler has also been transformative on both ends of the floor. Defensively, he provides the Warriors with an elite, versatile stopper capable of handling any matchup, adding much-needed depth to their defensive rotations. On offense, Butler’s aggression and ability to draw fouls have brought a level of sustainability that the Warriors lacked in previous seasons. His presence ensures they can generate easy points, alleviating past struggles with scoring droughts.
Golden State’s signature ball movement remains a major strength, as they rank first in assists per field goal made. This should be particularly effective against a Dallas defense that has struggled heavily in recent weeks, ranking third-worst in defensive rating over the last 10 games. The Warriors’ constant off-ball motion will create open looks for their shooters, an area where they already hold an advantage. Ranking fourth in three-pointers made per game, they face a Mavericks defense that has been vulnerable to perimeter shooting, allowing the 21st-worst opponent three-point percentage this season.
Given Dallas’ injuries and ongoing search for lineup chemistry, the Warriors are well-positioned to continue their winning ways. With a stylistic and personnel advantage on both ends of the court, they have a strong chance of covering the -6.5 spread against a depleted Mavericks squad still trying to find its footing.