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NBA Finals: Betting Insights Wednesday 11th June
Statistically, Oklahoma City holds the edge in net rating, effective field goal percentage, turnover margin, and rebounding efficiency. The Thunder have outscored Indiana by 24 points through two games and have had significantly more success in transition, converting live-ball turnovers into high-percentage looks.
by Malachi
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER @ INDIANA PACERS
Player News
Out: J. Walker
Questionable: N/a
Market
Opening: -4.5 OKC / 226.5
Current: -5.5 OKC / 228
Analysis
Game 3 of the 2025 NBA Finals tips off on June 11 in Indianapolis with the series tied 1-1. After dropping Game 1 in a heartbreaking one-point loss, Oklahoma City bounced back with a dominant 123-107 win in Game 2 to reassert their control. Indiana now returns home to Gainbridge Fieldhouse looking to reclaim momentum, but they face the task of containing a Thunder side that has consistently responded well to adversity and has been the more efficient team over two games.
The series so far has been a contrast of styles and execution. In Game 1, the Pacers capitalised on OKC's late-game execution issues and pulled off a comeback despite trailing by double digits in the third quarter. Tyrese Haliburton’s clutch shooting and Pascal Siakam’s interior presence gave Indiana the edge in crunch time. But Game 2 was all Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put up 35 points, and OKC’s length and transition game completely overwhelmed Indiana. The Thunder led by as many as 27 points, forced 22 turnovers, and never allowed the Pacers to establish rhythm offensively.
From a tactical and metrics perspective, the Thunder remain the superior team. They entered the Finals with the league’s top defensive rating in the playoffs and are forcing turnovers at the highest rate among remaining teams. They’ve held the Pacers to just 32.6% from three over the first two games, while their own shooting efficiency climbed in Game 2 thanks to better off-ball movement and second-chance opportunities. Indiana’s fast pace and high assist numbers remain dangerous, but they struggle to create in isolation and lack a consistent answer for Oklahoma City’s switching defense and interior rim protection.
Statistically, Oklahoma City holds the edge in net rating, effective field goal percentage, turnover margin, and rebounding efficiency. The Thunder have outscored Indiana by 24 points through two games and have had significantly more success in transition, converting live-ball turnovers into high-percentage looks. The Pacers have the advantage in bench production, but their starting five has posted a negative plus-minus when matched against OKC’s core. Unless Indiana can limit turnovers and improve their half-court defense, the numbers continue to favour the Thunder moving forward.
Trend-wise, Oklahoma City has covered the spread in five of their last six playoff road games and is 6-1 following a loss this postseason. Indiana, on the other hand, has been strong at home, winning seven of their last eight games in Indianapolis. However, their only recent home loss came to a Knicks team that, like OKC, defends well on the perimeter and applies constant pressure to ball-handlers. With the Thunder appearing to have figured out Indiana’s offensive patterns, the edge leans toward the visitors to carry that momentum into Game 3.