NBA Playoffs: Betting Insights Wednesday 23rd April

ACEPICKS LEANS

CLE vs MIA Under 212

ORLANDO MAGIC @ BOSTON CELTICS

Player News

Out: Tatum

Questionable: N/a

Market

Opening: -12 BOS / 201.5

Current: -10.5 BOS / 197.5

Analysis

The Boston Celtics aim to extend their series lead against the Orlando Magic in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff matchup. In Game 1, the Celtics secured a 103–86 victory, propelled by Derrick White's 30-point performance and a strong defensive showing that limited the Magic to just 86 points. However, Boston faces uncertainty with Jayson Tatum listed as doubtful due to a right wrist injury sustained during the previous game.

Historically, the Celtics and Magic have met in three playoff series, with Orlando winning two and Boston one. In the 2024–25 regular season, the Celtics held a 2–1 advantage over the Magic. Notably, Orlando secured a 96–76 victory in their most recent regular-season encounter on April 9, 2025, when Boston rested its starters.

From an analytical standpoint, Boston's success in Game 1 was marked by efficient three-point shooting, converting 16 of 37 attempts (43.2%), with guards Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, and Payton Pritchard contributing significantly. Conversely, Orlando's offense struggled beyond Paolo Banchero's 36 points and Franz Wagner's 23, with the remainder of the team combining for just 27 points. The Magic's 15 turnovers led to 24 points for the Celtics, highlighting the need for improved ball security. With Tatum's status uncertain, Orlando has an opportunity to capitalize and even the series.​

MIAMI HEAT @ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

Player News

Out: K. Love, T. Rozier

Questionable: N/a

Market

Opening: -12.5 CLE / 216

Current: -12 CLE / 212

Analysis

The Cleveland Cavaliers aim to extend their series lead against the Miami Heat in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff matchup. In Game 1, the Cavaliers secured a 121–100 victory, propelled by Donovan Mitchell's 30-point performance and Ty Jerome's 28 points off the bench. Despite the loss, the Heat remained competitive through three quarters, with Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro combining for 45 points. However, a fourth-quarter surge by Cleveland ultimately sealed the game. 

Analyzing advanced metrics, the Cavaliers concluded the regular season with a 118.9 offensive rating (4th in the league) and a 111.8 defensive rating (8th), resulting in a net rating of +9.2 (3rd). Conversely, the Heat posted a 112.4 offensive rating (21st) and a 112.0 defensive rating (9th), yielding a net rating of +0.4 (16th).

In Game 1, Cleveland's offense was particularly efficient, recording a 142.4 offensive rating in non-garbage time, placing them in the 100th percentile for that metric. Miami's defense struggled, especially in containing Cleveland's guards, as Tyler Herro's defensive assignments resulted in a 178.3 offensive rating for the Cavaliers.

For Game 2, both teams are expected to make defensive adjustments. Miami will likely focus on limiting Cleveland's perimeter shooting and enhancing their defensive rotations. Given these anticipated changes and the importance of the game, a lower-scoring contest is plausible, suggesting that the total points may fall under the betting market's expectations.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS @ HOUSTON ROCKETS

Player News

Out: J. Landale, J. Tate

Questionable: N/a

Market

Opening: -1 HOU / 208.5

Current: -3 HOU / 203.5

Analysis

The Golden State Warriors aim to extend their lead against the Houston Rockets in Game 2 of their first-round playoff series tonight at the Toyota Center. In Game 1, the veteran Warriors secured a 95–85 victory, led by Stephen Curry's 31 points and Jimmy Butler's 25-point Warriors playoff debut performance. Golden State's defense effectively limited Houston's offensive threats, particularly on the perimeter.​

Analyzing advanced metrics, the Warriors have shown significant improvement since acquiring Jimmy Butler midseason, finishing the regular season with a 23–8 record post-trade. Their defense, led by Draymond Green and Butler, has been particularly effective, ranking second in the league in points off turnovers.

In Game 1, the Warriors' defense held the Rockets to 20.7% shooting from beyond the arc, exploiting Houston's season-long struggles with three-point shooting and ball movement. The Rockets, who ranked 21st in three-point percentage during the regular season, struggled to create open shots against Golden State's disciplined defense. Despite being out-rebounded 52–36, the Warriors capitalized on Houston's offensive inefficiencies. Alperen Şengün was a bright spot for the Rockets, scoring 26 points on 11-of-18 shooting. For Game 2, Houston will need to improve their perimeter shooting and ball movement to challenge Golden State's defense and even the series.