In this article, we've selected five teams that stand out as the most intriguing storylines thus far, offering a deeper dive into their successes, struggles, and everything in between.
*SOS: Strength Of Schedule (p = past / f = future)
Washington Commanders
Record: 7-3
Playoff Odds: 3.85 -> 1.13
pSOS: 28th
fSOS: 31st
Market Ranking:
Overall: 12th
Offense: 8th
Defense: 17th
The Washington Commanders entered the 2024 season with minimal expectations, largely overshadowed by powerhouse teams in their NFC East division like the Eagles and Cowboys. However, after making several key off-season moves—most notably hiring former Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as their new head coach—their fortunes have dramatically shifted. The primary goal for this season was to develop rookie quarterback Daniels, whom they selected with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Yet, Washington has far exceeded expectations, now emerging as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Coming off a last-place finish in the NFC East in 2023, the Commanders were handed a relatively favorable schedule this season and have made the most of it. Daniels, the young quarterback, has impressed in his rookie campaign, quickly becoming a rising star under the guidance of offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Some experts are already placing him in the MVP conversation. The Commanders' offense currently ranks 2nd in EPA per play and 3rd in success rate, outperforming market expectations despite being ranked just the 8th best overall offense. Washington’s offensive line, ranked 6th in PFF’s Pass Blocking Efficiency, has played a crucial role in keeping Daniels protected, allowing him the time and space to execute their expansive playbook. Daniels’ ability to scramble, drawing comparisons to last season’s MVP Lamar Jackson, adds an extra dynamic to an already potent offense.
On the defensive side of the ball, expectations were even lower, with many projections placing the Commanders’ defense in the bottom five to start the season. But Quinn’s defensive expertise has transformed this young, relatively inexperienced defense into a formidable unit. Despite a lack of star power, Washington ranks 4th in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate and has shown steady improvement since Week 5, now sitting in the top 11 in both EPA per play and success rate allowed. This upward trajectory suggests that the defense has not yet reached its peak, with plenty of room for growth. If they continue to improve, the Commanders’ defense could become a major playoff asset as they head into the second half of the season.
Arizona Cardinals
Record: 6-4
Playoff Odds: 4.05 -> 1.74
pSOS: 1st
fSOS: 25th
Market Ranking:
Overall: 17th
Offense: 12th
Defense: 25th
The Arizona Cardinals find themselves in one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL—the NFC West—where they face off against the 2024 Super Bowl runners-up, the San Francisco 49ers, along with the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. After finishing with a dismal 4-13 record last season, any improvement would have been considered a win. Yet, here they are, sitting atop the NFC West, looking to make a legitimate playoff push. Even more impressive is the fact that they've accomplished this while navigating the toughest schedule in the league.
Offensively, the Cardinals have made a dramatic leap under the guidance of offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, who has maximized the potential of quarterback Kyler Murray. A pivotal move in the off-season was the selection of rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 draft. Harrison Jr. has been everything the Cardinals hoped for and more, adding speed, power, and versatility to the offense. Alongside Murray, running back James Conner, and tight end Trey McBride, the Cardinals have assembled a dynamic and dangerous offensive core. Ranked 8th in the league in EPA per play, they’ve been even more explosive in recent weeks, climbing to 2nd in that metric since Week 7. The system is designed to minimize mistakes while allowing for explosive plays, giving this offense tremendous upside and making it a unit to be feared moving forward.
Defensively, the Cardinals remain a work in progress, though there are signs of improvement. Currently ranked 25th in market defensive rankings, the defense continues to be the team's Achilles' heel, with weaknesses across multiple areas of the game. Their pass rush is one of the least effective in the league, ranked 2nd worst in pass-rush win rate by ESPN, and their run stop win rate also ranking in the bottom 10. As a result, the offense has often been forced to carry the team. However, recent trends suggest a positive trajectory. Over the past month, the defense has shown improvement, ranking in the top 11 in both EPA per play and success rate allowed. While still far from elite, these upward trends indicate that the Cardinals' defense is capable of getting better, which could be crucial as they look to make a playoff run.
Minnesota Vikings
Record: 7-2
Playoff Odds: 3.90 -> 1.14
pSOS: 3rd
fSOS: 14th
Market Ranking:
Overall: 7th
Offense: 11th
Defense: 2nd
The Minnesota Vikings have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 NFL season. After a remarkable 5-0 start, their undefeated run came to an end in late dramatic fashion, with a narrow 2-point loss to the Detroit Lions. Heading into the season, expectations were low for Minnesota, particularly after rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury during the preseason. However, backup quarterback Sam Darnold stepped up and has flourished in head coach Kevin O'Connell's innovative offensive system. The Vikings have emerged as a true "sum of their parts" team, and with the league's top-rated play-callers, they are widely regarded as the most well-coached squad in the NFL.
Offensively, the Vikings boast one of the most versatile systems in the league, with star wide receiver Justin Jefferson leading the charge. Minnesota ranks in the top half of the league in both success rate and EPA per play, with their passing game being the standout. Jefferson has been sensational, accumulating 831 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns through 10 weeks. That said, recent weeks have seen some regression in their offensive production. Over the past month, the Vikings' passing game has struggled, ranking in the bottom 12 in EPA per play on dropbacks. They will be pleased to see their remaining schedule as it is far less challenging than what they have had to play through so far.
While the offense has had its ups and downs, the true strength of this Vikings team lies on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores, widely considered as the league's best defensive play-caller, has orchestrated a defense that stands out for its discipline, creativity, and cohesion. What makes this defense so effective is its ability to disguise coverage schemes, constantly keeping opposing quarterbacks guessing after the snap of the ball. The Vikings’ defense ranks among the best in the league, sitting atop the charts in both EPA per play and success rate allowed. There may not be a standout individual star on this unit, but their collective play has been exceptional. Every player seems to be in sync, and the defense's ability to play as a cohesive unit has been a key factor in their success.
New York Jets
Record: 3-7
Playoff Odds: 1.57 -> 8.50
pSOS: 13th
fSOS: 13th
Market Ranking:
Overall: 13th
Offense: 19th
Defense: 6th
The New York Jets entered the 2024 season with Super Bowl aspirations, but their campaign has quickly turned into a series of self-inflicted setbacks. Careless mistakes, poor sequencing, and a lack of cohesion have marred their performances, leaving the team searching for an identity on both sides of the ball. The firing of their head coach only deepened the sense of dysfunction, with the Jets now effectively starting over. The team has won just 1 of their last 7 games, and with their playoff hopes all but dashed, discussions have already begun about a potential rebuild.
In a desperate bid to turn things around, the Jets made a high-profile trade for star wide receiver Davante Adams a month ago. However, Adams has yet to deliver the explosive playmaking and star power that the Jets were hoping for. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, once seen as the savior of this team, has been a lightning rod for controversy, with some even blaming him for the firing of their head coach. Due to a run-oriented offensive approach, which often leaves the Jets in unfavorable third-down situations, they have struggled to find consistency. While their offensive line has been one of the few bright spots—ranking 4th in PFF OL Pass Blocking Efficiency—their offensive scheme has not maximized its potential. The Jets rank around the middle of the league in most efficiency metrics, a far cry from the top-5 offense that many anticipated coming into the season.
Defensively, the Jets were expected to field an elite unit, particularly after a standout 2023 campaign with minimal roster turnover, however, the performances have been below par through 10 weeks. On the positive side, their pass coverage remains one of the best in the league, ranked 6th by PFF. However, this has been rendered largely ineffective due to a run defense that has been nothing short of disastrous. Ranking as the 4th worst in the league in run-stopping, the Jets’ inability to shut down the run has been a critical flaw that has undermined their defense as a whole. With head coach Robert Saleh—whose expertise was expected to be the backbone of the defense—now gone, the team’s defensive issues have only worsened.
Dallas Cowboys
Record: 3-6
Playoff Odds: 1.48 -> 29.0
pSOS: 6th
fSOS: 24th
Market Ranking:
Overall: 31st
Offense: 29th
Defense: 30th
The Dallas Cowboys, long dubbed “America’s Team,” have seen their reputation take a significant hit in the 2024 season, with an embarrassing start that has left many fans and analysts distancing themselves from the once-glamorous franchise. Heading into the season with “Super Bowl or bust” expectations and playoff odds as low as 1.48, the Cowboys were pegged as legitimate contenders. Fast forward to today, and they now find themselves with the second-longest odds to make the playoffs, in the same conversation as struggling teams like the Carolina Panthers.
The season has been mired in turmoil for Dallas, with the final blow coming in the form of a season-ending injury to quarterback Dak Prescott, who went down in a game against the Falcons just a few weeks ago. The offensive struggles have been glaring, with the run game being particularly dismal. The Cowboys' offensive line has failed to create consistent running lanes, leaving them among the least explosive rushing teams in the league. In the passing game, outside of star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, the receiving corps has struggled to generate separation, putting even more pressure on the quarterback to make throws into tight coverage windows, leading to a high turnover-worthy play rate. As a result, the Cowboys are ranked as the 8th worst passing offense and 2nd worst rushing offense through 10 weeks.
The Cowboys’ defense has been their strength in recent seasons, with star pass rusher Micah Parsons anchoring the unit. However, injuries have taken their toll on the team as Parsons and several other key players on the defensive line have been sidelined throughout the early going of the year, severely impacting the team's ability to generate pressure and maintain cohesion. The Cowboys now rank 25th in pass-rush win rate and 30th in run-stop win rate, as per ESPN, and are currently ranked as the 3rd worst defense in the league by market rankings. This sharp drop-off in defensive performance coincides with the departure of defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who left to take a head coaching job in Washington. Without Quinn’s leadership, the defense has failed to replicate the dominance it displayed in previous seasons.
