The Colts and Broncos both come off a bye week, but the former team is set to receive a bigger upgrade than the latter, by virtue of WR Josh Downs being healthy again. The Broncos will still be without key secondary player Riley Moss, which brings a major downgrade to their defense’s ability to defend the passing game. The Colts have had one of the highest rates of passing over expectation in the last month, and should roll on with Richardson getting back his main weapon. On the other side, we expect the Broncos to be able to score some points against the heavy zone coverage matchup of the Colts that QB Bo Nix thrives against, but ultimately our numbers point to a major edge on the spread down to +2.5, while the total we would bet up to a max of 44.5.